France Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 77

BMI Industry View Brexit is likely to have significant effects on the French petrochemicals market and will draw focus towards

the further restructuring of the industry, which will be crucial to competitiveness. Aside from slower market

activity, challenges include the impact of rising crude prices on naphtha feedstock prices; economies of

scale at cracker plants; the impact of labour unrest in the refinery sector on the production chain; and the

need to secure investment in research and development in order to maintain competitiveness in downstream

value-added production.

In terms of long-term prospects, BMI does not believe France's petrochemicals sector has gone through a

sufficient process of structural adjustment to improve cost margins and efficiency, in large part due to the

protectionism of the government. We caution French petrochemicals output, in the medium term, could

decline as a result of plant closures. This makes it more vulnerable to market shocks and a rise in naphtha


In H116, production indices show that rubber output grew 0.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) with Q2 seeing greater

stability in output following a dismal Q1. Meanwhile, plastic continued its strong growth trajectory with

output up 5.5% y-o-y. According to the latest figures from the French chemicals industry association Union

des Industries Chimiques (UIC), chemicals production - including pharmaceuticals - grew just 0.8% y-o-y

in Q116, down from 1.4% growth in Q415. The lower growth was related to a 1.9% fall in exports as

demand in the EU diminished. Due to the uncertainty caused by the largely unexpected Brexit vote, BMI

expects even slower growth going into H216 with the potential for rubber production to fall back and

chemicals and plastic growth to decline.

? In the context of a worsening market outlook, as much as a third of French petrochemicals capacity could

be put at risk of mothballing or permanent closure due to low capacity, high operating costs and lack of

integration with feedstock sources.

? For 2016, BMI estimates that France had olefins production capacities of 2.78mn tonnes per annum (tpa)

ethylene, 1.8mn tpa propylene and 445,000tpa butadiene. Polymer capacities included 1.44mn tpa

polypropylene (PP), 1.22mn tpa low density polyethylene, 705,000tpa high density polyethylene,

560,000tpa linear low density polyethylene, 1.39mn tpa polyvinyl chloride, 330,000tpa polystyrene and

70,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate. In the fertiliser segment, France has capacities of 1.58mn tpa

ammonia and 785,000tpa urea. France also had styrene butadiene rubber capacity of 160,000tpa.

France Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 13
Table: France's Chemicals And Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2020 17
Macroeconomic Forecast 19
Economic Analysis 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index 24
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 24
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 30
France Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 31
Market Overview 32
Table: French Chemical Industry Trade Value In EURbn 32
Table: France Cracker Capacity 33
Industry Trends And Developments 35
Refining 35
Petrochemicals 37
Fertiliser 38
Company Profile 39
Arkema 39
Total 44
Table: Total financial results (USDbn) 47
Regional Overview 49
Europe Overview 49
Global Industry Overview 60
Demographic Forecast 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (France 1990-2025) 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (France 1990-2025) 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (France 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group (France 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (France 1990-2025) 70
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 72
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 77

List of Tables

Table: France's Chemicals And Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2020
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Table: French Chemical Industry Trade Value In EURbn
Table: France Cracker Capacity
Table: Total financial results (USDbn)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (France 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (France 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (France 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (France 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (France 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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