France Defence and Security Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 50

BMI View: French defence spending will increase in 2016, amid the government's ongoing fight against

internal and external threats. The Paris attacks in November consolidated the government's promise to halt

armed forces downsizing and strengthen counter-terrorism capacities both domestically and

internationally. The need to modernise the existing fleets and technologies will incur further procurement

contracts throughout the armed forces, notably in cyber-crime and operational equipment. Military

expenditure will increase slowly in the coming years in light of persistent threats and as economic

conditions improve and political uncertainty decreases. French defence manufacturers, which satisfy most

of the national procurements will continue to look to international expansion and should consistently

deliver record-high exports and profits in the coming year, although we expect the local defence industry to

develop shared designs and production capabilities in cooperation with foreign companies over the next

few years.

Recent Developments

? In November 2015, Islamist terrorists attacked various locations in central Paris and nearby suburbs

killing 130 people. The attack was orchestrated by IS backed Islamist militants, some born and raised in

France and Belgium and others having travelled from Syria posing a refugees from the conflict there.

? After the attacks on Charlie Hebdo, on January 12, President Hollande had announced the deployment of

an additional 10,000 troops on the streets across the country, as well as a EUR425mn investment into

greater surveillance capacity for the police, security and intelligence services over the next three years.

This was confirmed in light of the Paris attacks and further EUR60mn was announced to combat

radicalisation domestically.

? Following the attacks, the French parliament voted for the implementation of a state of emergency,

renewed twice as of July 2016. This legal framework provides for greater legislative and operational

powers for the police and armed forces to deal with suspected threats.

? France carried out its first bombardments of Syria following the November attacks, expanding on its

existing Operation Chammal swhich saw France participating in US-led targeted bombings of suspected

IS and Islamist targets in Iraq.

France Defence and Security Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure (France 2015-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Defence Industry SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Defence Expenditure 11
Table: Defence Expenditure (France 2014-2019) 12
Table: Defence Expenditure (France 2020-2025) 12
Defence Trade 13
Exports 13
Imports 14
Table: France - Key Defence Agreements 14
Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Rewards 17
Risks 18
Market Overview 19
Defence Market Overview 19
Domestic Defence Market 23
Armed Forces Overview 26
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (France 2008-2015) 26
Table: French Armed Forces - Overseas Deployments 28
Security Overview 29
Domestic Threats 29
Regional Threats 32
International Threats 32
Company Profile 36
Dassault Aviation 36
DCNS 38
Airbus Group 40
Thales 43
Methodology 46
Industry Forecast Methodology 46
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Sector-Specific Methodology 49
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 49
Weighting 50
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 50

List of Tables

Table: Headline Defence Expenditure (France 2015-2020)
Table: Defence Expenditure (France 2014-2019)
Table: Defence Expenditure (France 2020-2025)
Table: France - Key Defence Agreements
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (France 2008-2015)
Table: French Armed Forces - Overseas Deployments
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index
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