Europe Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 80

BMI View: Oil & gas production in Europe will remain strong throughout the next five years, driven by

Russia and a strong pipeline of projects in the UK and Norway. In the longer term, the Johan Sverdrup

project in Norway and Russia's Yamal and East Siberia gas programmes will be pivotal to growth. The

refining sector will come under increasing pressure as rising oil prices erode margins.

Key oil & gas developments in Europe include:

- Brexit will have a marginal near-term impact on the European oil and gas sector. Over the longer term

uncertainty around a second Scottish independence referendum will drive caution investment decisions.

- The post-Brexit depreciation of the pound will make LNG imports more expensive, in one of the most

important European markets.

- A weaker pound will also lower operating costs for UK focused producers.

- Russian and Norwegian oil production continues to outperform, reaching 10.87mn b/d and 2.0mn b/d in

H116.

Europe Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: European Oil & Gas Production, Consumption & Refining 7
Regional Forecast Analysis 8
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 8
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025 17
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025 19
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 21
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 21
Oil Consumption: Long Term Growth To Be Gentle 22
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 23
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 24
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 25
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 26
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 27
Industry Risk Reward Index 28
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 28
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 28
Upstream Rankings: Resource Base Will Keep North America Well Ahead 29
Resource Limitations Take Toll On Western Europe 30
Table: North America & Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 32
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead 32
Table: North America & Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index 34
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 35
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 36
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 39
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 39
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 42
Industry Trends 43
Brexit: Bearish For Gas 43
Europe - Muted Impact From Brexit On European O&G 46
Table: UK Oil & Gas Production Forecasts, 2015-2025 47
Table: Europe Oil & Gas Production Forecasts, 2015-2025 47
Table: Europe Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2015-2025 48
United Kingdom - Opex Reductions Offer Production Upside 48
Europe - Commercial And Political Obstacles Scale Back Pipeline Ambitions 50
Table: Russian Gas Pipelines Capacity Into Europe 54
Norway - Reengineering Lowering Project Costs 54
Table: Concept Change Cuts Costs 55
United Kingdom - Rough Winter Will Expose Longer-Term Vulnerabilities 56
Price Forecasts 60
Global - Brent: Conventional Declines To Drive 2017 Recovery 60
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus* WTI & Brent Annual Average Forecasts, USD/bbl 60
United Kingdom - NBP-Crude Delinkage Marks Structural Shift 69
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Source 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 79
Table: Weighting 80

List of Tables

Table: European Oil & Gas Production, Consumption & Refining
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2015-2025
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: North America & Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: North America & Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: UK Oil & Gas Production Forecasts, 2015-2025
Table: Europe Oil & Gas Production Forecasts, 2015-2025
Table: Europe Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2015-2025
Table: Russian Gas Pipelines Capacity Into Europe
Table: Concept Change Cuts Costs
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus* WTI & Brent Annual Average Forecasts, USD/bbl
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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