Ethiopia Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 59

BMI View: Ethiopia's state-driven investment model raises the likelihood of successful project delivery -

particularly hydropower megaprojects that will dominate our forecast to 2025. At this stage, our forecasts

are conservative based on the huge scale of the country's hydropower expansion plans and concerns that

disputes over water rights could lead to delay, but we do expect to upgrade the forecast as projects move

into the construction phase owing to robust government support.

Key Trends And Latest Developments

? Hydropower will remain the dominant source of electricity generation in Ethiopia over our 10-year

forecast period as the country pursues ambitious plans to build a series of hydropower megaprojects. Our

forecasts are conservative and currently belie Ethiopia's government targets and true hydropower

potential on the basis that many hydropower projects are still in the planning phase. Nevertheless, with

such strong government support for new hydropower, we will consider revising our forecasts upwards as

projects move into the construction phase.

? Ethiopia's plan to use its vast hydropower resources to lift low domestic electrification rates and establish

itself as an East African electricity export hub will drive its ambitious hydropower expansion plans. The

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the country's flagship project and we have included the

6GW project in our forecasts.

? In line with our views, state-owned Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) is also slated to build two

hydroelectric dams on the Genale-Dawa and Dabus rivers, according to reports from July 2016. The

schemes will have a combined generation capacity of 672MW, of which the new Genale-Dawa dam will

account for 248MW, while the Dabus River dam will have capacity of 424MW. Similarly, in June 2016

EEP awarded the EUR2.5bn (USD2.83bn) Koysha Hydroelectric Dam project to Italian industrial

group Salini Impregilo.

? Beyond the hydropower sector, Ethiopia is emerging as a burgeoning renewables market in Sub-Saharan

Africa. On June 27 2016, China's Dongfang Electric Corporation signed a contract with stateowned

EEP to construct a 120MW wind park in the Ayesha area of the Somali region of Ethiopia. It is

also expected that the signing of Ethiopia's first independent PPA in 2015 - for the Corbetti geothermal

project - should set a precedent for other private investors.

Ethiopia Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Ethiopia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Ethiopia Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ethiopia 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ethiopia 2020-2025) 10
Ethiopia Power Forecast Scenario 10
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecasts 11
Table: Planned Hydropower Projects 14
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecasts 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025) 23
Electricity Consumption 23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025) 26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 27
SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings 27
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 34
Ethiopia Power Risk/Reward Index 35
Market Overview 37
Key Policies And Market Structure 37
Ethiopia Power Projects Database 39
Competitive Landscape 43
Regional Overview 45
MEA: Key Themes 45
Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status 50
Glossary 53
Table: Glossary Of Terms 53
Methodology 54
Methodology And Sources 54
Industry Forecast Methodology 54
Sources 57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 59

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Ethiopia 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ethiopia 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ethiopia 2020-2025)
Table: Planned Hydropower Projects
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ethiopia 2020-2025)
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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