Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti Telecommunications Report 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 71

BMI View: We maintain a largely subdued outlook for the three markets surveyed in this report: Eritrea,

Ethiopia and Djibouti. All three of these markets display growth potential, but market development

dynamics have been hampered by poor government policies and state-owned monopolies that have been

unable to successfully develop the markets. Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea share certain common

characteristics including low penetration rates, a low rate of technological uptake, government-backed

sole-services providers and the absence of healthy competition necessary to drive the market forward.

Ethiopia, the largest of the three, has witnessed the government actively invest into network infrastructure

upgrades to Ethio Telecom as consumers have long complained about poor quality and high costs. We

believe that market liberalization and competition are crucial elements that will unlock the true growth

potential in these markets. Nevertheless, it currently appears that these markets will remain closed. We

presently remain most optimistic about Ethiopia as the government's tenders begin to bear fruit.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

? We are hopeful that the Ethiopian government's ambitious investments into developing the infrastructure

capabilities of the Ethio Telecom will prove fruitful in terms of organic subscriber growth and 3G

uptake. Chinese firm ZTE has actively been working on improving both the wireless and fixed national

infrastructure in the country.

? Telecoms sector growth in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea remains depressed and subdued due to lack of

competition, poor governance policies and state-owned monopolies that have been unable to foster

market growth.

Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti Telecommunications Report 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Ethiopia - SWOT 9
Eritrea - SWOT 10
Djibouti - SWOT 11
Industry Forecast 12
Ethiopia 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ethiopia 2013-2020) 15
Eritrea 16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Eritrea 2013-2020) 20
Djibouti 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Djibouti 2013-2020) 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 24
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 28
Ethiopia Risk/Reward Index 29
Eritrea Risk/Reward Index 30
Djibouti Risk/Reward Index 31
Market Overview 33
Ethiopia 33
Market Drivers & Trends 33
Mobile 33
Wireline Voice & Broadband 38
Pay TV/Convergence 40
Eritrea 41
Djibouti 44
Market Drivers & Trends 44
Mobile 45
Wireline Voice & Broadband 46
Regulatory Development 48
Industry Risks 48
Main Development: Ethiopia Government Pushes for Growth 49
Additional Developments 49
Demographic Forecast 50
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 51
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 51
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 52
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 52
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 53
Demographic Forecast 55
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Eritrea 1990-2025) 56
Table: Key Population Ratios (Eritrea 1990-2025) 56
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Eritrea 1990-2025) 57
Table: Population By Age Group (Eritrea 1990-2025) 57
Table: Population By Age Group % (Eritrea 1990-2025) 58
Demographic Forecast 60
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Djibouti 1990-2025) 61
Table: Key Population Ratios (Djibouti 1990-2025) 61
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Djibouti 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group (Djibouti 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group % (Djibouti 1990-2025) 63
Glossary 65
Table: Glossary Of Terms 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sources 69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 71

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ethiopia 2013-2020)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Eritrea 2013-2020)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Djibouti 2013-2020)
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Eritrea 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Eritrea 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Eritrea 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Eritrea 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Eritrea 1990-2025)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Djibouti 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Djibouti 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Djibouti 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Djibouti 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Djibouti 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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