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BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for Ethiopian agriculture over the long term.
This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing to
consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugar
refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms of
grains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to El
Niño. Moreover, even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely to
remain a net grains importer over the medium term.
? Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 148.8% to 746,500 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugar
corporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim of
the plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.
? Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption,
although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenya
? 2016 real GDP growth: 7.0% (down from 8.1% in 2015; predicted to average 7.4% from 2016 until
? 2016 consumer price inflation: 8.2% average in 2016 (up from 10.4% in 2015).