Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 73

BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for Ethiopian agriculture over the long term.

This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing to

consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugar

refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms of

grains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to El

Niño. Moreover, even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely to

remain a net grains importer over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

? Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 148.8% to 746,500 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugar

corporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim of

the plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.

? Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption,

although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenya

and Uganda.

? 2016 real GDP growth: 7.0% (down from 8.1% in 2015; predicted to average 7.4% from 2016 until

2020).

? 2016 consumer price inflation: 8.2% average in 2016 (up from 10.4% in 2015).

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Sugar Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 13
Grains Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 17
Coffee Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 20
Commodities Price Analysis 21
Global Commodities Strategy 21
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 21
Featured Analysis 23
Ten Emerging Markets Of The Future: Highlighting Key Sectors 23
Table: Key Drivers Of Economic Growth By Sector Classification, 2016-2025 25
Country Summaries 25
Table: Bangladesh - Sector Growth Forecasts 26
Table: Egypt - Sector Growth Forecasts 28
Table: Ethiopia - Sector Growth Forecasts 30
Table: Indonesia - Sector Growth Forecasts 32
Table: Kenya - Sector Growth Forecasts 33
Table: Myanmar - Sector Growth Rates 34
Table: Nigeria - Sector Growth Rates 36
Table: Pakistan - Sector Growth Rates 37
Table: Philippines - Sector Growth Rates 38
Table: Vietnam - Sector Growth Rates 40
Upstream Analysis 41
Africa GM Outlook 41
Africa Machinery Outlook 48
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 48
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 54
Regional Overview 61
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview 61
Demographic Forecast 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 70
Methodology 72
Industry Forecast Methodology 72
Sector-Specific Methodology 73

List of Tables

Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Grain Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Table: Key Drivers Of Economic Growth By Sector Classification, 2016-2025
Table: Bangladesh - Sector Growth Forecasts
Table: Egypt - Sector Growth Forecasts
Table: Ethiopia - Sector Growth Forecasts
Table: Indonesia - Sector Growth Forecasts
Table: Kenya - Sector Growth Forecasts
Table: Myanmar - Sector Growth Rates
Table: Nigeria - Sector Growth Rates
Table: Pakistan - Sector Growth Rates
Table: Philippines - Sector Growth Rates
Table: Vietnam - Sector Growth Rates
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
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