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BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will see smaller decline rates over the coming years on the back
of several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and a lack of new significant discoveries will continue
to push the production volumes to the downside over our forecast period to 2025. Ophir's Fortuna FLNG
project provides the most important upside to the country's gas production and net exports. While the
company targets a FID by end-2016, we highlight risks to the project due to slowing global demand for
LNG and the large wave of LNG projects coming online within the next few years.
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
? Equatorial Guinea is forecast to see its oil and gas reserves decline significantly over our forecast period
to 2025 due to maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries. There are upside risks from a
string of recent exploration activities offshore, as well as the new reduced-oil price environment
attracting investors to lower-risk and lower-cost ventures such as Equatorial Guinea.
? The country has officially launched a new deepwater licensing round in June 2016 for 37 remaining deep
and ultra-deepwater blocks. The bidding period concludes in November 2016.
? Despite benefiting from low oil prices, in the absence of significant improvements in the fiscal terms on
offer and broader regulatory stability, the country will be unable to draw investment into its prospective
but riskier deepwater acreage.