EpiCast Report: Meningococcal Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

Publisher Name :
Date: 15-May-2013
No. of pages: 46

Meningococcal disease is caused by Neisseria meningitidis, which is an encapsulated, Gram-negative bacterium that has an incidence of one to three cases per 100,000 population worldwide (Giuliani et al., 2006). Strains of Neisseria meningitidis are classified based on the chemical composition of unique polysaccharide capsules. Although there are 13 different serogroups, nearly all disease in humans is caused by strains representative of six serogroups: A, B, C, W-135, X and Y (CDC, 2012d; Halperin et al., 2012; Rosenstein et al., 2001). Humans are the only natural reservoir of Neisseria meningitidis, and the bacterium causes three common clinical forms of meningococcal disease: meningitis, blood infection, and pneumonia (CDC, 2012d; Wilder-Smith and Memish, 2003). Up to 10% of adolescents and adults are asymptomatic, transient carriers of the bacterium, which can be transmitted via respiratory droplets or by direct contact (CDC, 2012d).

During the forecast period, the number of incident cases will remain relatively stable. An increase in international travel to regions of high incidence could cause some serogroups to appear in countries where they were not previously prevalent. In addition to vaccinating international travelers, the vaccination of household members of individuals traveling to high-risk regions would further prevent outbreaks due to strains that certain populations are not yet immune to.

GlobalData epidemiologists obtained surveillance data for each market in this analysis, except for Spain and the UK. However, for these markets a peer-reviewed journal article was used that analyzed the surveillance data in these countries. The surveillance data used in this analysis are collected by country-specific, governmental organizations that routinely collect data on meningococcal disease cases. Use of surveillance data is optimal as it allows for a comprehensive picture of the epidemiology of the disease, including age and serogroup distribution. Although the overall incidence of meningococcal disease is relatively low, the age and serogroup segmentation of incident cases provided in this forecast shows the populations at highest risk for meningococcal disease in each market.

Scope


  • The Meningococcal Disease EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of meningococcal disease in the eight major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Australia, and Brazil).

  • It includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of meningococcal disease incident cases segmented by age (<1, 1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44, 45–64, and ending at ages 65 years and older) and serogroup (B, C, Y, and W-135) in the 8MM.


Reasons To Buy

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global meningococcal disease market.

  • Quantify patient populations in the global meningococcal disease market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and serogroups that present the best opportunities for meningococcal disease vaccines in each of the markets covered.

EpiCast Report: Meningococcal Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022

Table Of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4
List Of Tables 6
List Of Figures 6

2 Introduction 7
2.1 Catalyst 7
2.2 Related Reports 8
2.3 Upcoming Reports 8

3 Epidemiology 9
3.1 Disease Background 9
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
3.2.1 Infants and young children are at greatest risk for developing meningococcal disease 10
3.2.2 Direct contact and overcrowding are the primary risk factors for infection 11
3.2.3 Exposure is highest for those traveling to the African "meningitis belt" 12
3.3 Global Trends 13
3.3.1 US 13
3.3.2 5EU 14
3.3.3 Australia 15
3.3.4 Brazil 16
3.4 Forecast Methodology 17
3.4.1 Sources Used 19
3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 23
3.4.3 Sources Not Used 27
3.5 Epidemiology Forecast of Meningococcal Disease (2012-2022) 28
3.5.1 Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease 28
3.5.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease 30
3.5.3 Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease By Serogroup 32
3.6 Discussion 34
3.6.1 Conclusions on Epidemiological Trends 34
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 35
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 35

4 Appendix 36
4.1 Bibliography 36
4.2 About the Authors 43
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 43
4.2.2 Reviewers 43
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Analysis 44
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 44
4.3 About GlobalData 45
4.4 About EpiCast 45
4.5 Contact Us 45
4.6 Disclaimer 46

List Of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors for Meningococcal Disease 10
Table 2: Sources of Incidence Data Used in the Epidemiology Forecast 18
Table 3: 8MM, Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease, N, Select Years, 2012-2022 28
Table 4: 8MM, Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease, By Age, N (Row %), 2012 31
Table 5: 8MM, Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease, By Serogroup, N (Row %), 2012 32

List Of Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease, N, Select Years, 2012-2022 29
Figure 2: 8MM, Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease, By Age, N, 2012 31
Figure 3: 8MM, Incident Cases of Meningococcal Disease, By Serogroup, %, 2012 33

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