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BMI View: El Salvador's trade growth will see a moderate slowdown in 2016, but this will not be sufficient
to weigh overly heavily on the freight transport sector. In 2017, we anticipate that growth will strengthen,
in large part driven by US consumer demand - growth in exports will outweigh imports over the coming
years. In Nicaragua, a robust expansion is expected in Nicaraguan trade volumes in 2016 and 2017, driven
by a robust real GDP growth outlook. Imports related to major projects will see imports far outweigh
exports, and this will support future growth in the freight transport sector. The biggest of these is the plan
to build a new canal through the country, linking the two oceans.
Key Updates And Forecasts
? El Salvador's trade growth will see a moderate slowdown in 2016 but in 2017 we anticipate that growth
will strengthen, in large part driven by US consumer demand. Robust expansion is expected in
Nicaraguan trade volumes in 2016 and 2017, driven by a robust real GDP growth outlook. Total trade
will enjoy real growth of 2.4% in El Salvador and 3.9% in Nicaragua for the full 2016-year.
? Road haulage volumes in El Salvador will expand slowly but steadily over the next several years. The
sector will benefit from a generally positive outlook for trade, bolstered by US demand for manufactured
goods from the country and supported by low petrol prices. Growth in road haulage volumes in
Nicaragua will slow in 2016 following a strong expansion in 2015. Road freight volumes will expand by
1.2% in El Salvador and 1.4% in Nicaragua. This will result in volumes of 7.0mn tonnes and 6.6mn
? Growth in air freight volumes in El Salvador will be brought about by strong consumer dynamics. Air
freight volumes in Nicaragua will also enjoy steady but sedate growth over the coming years. Air freight
volumes in El Salvador will expand by 3.5% to 27,133 tonnes. In Nicaragua volume growth will be 1.4%,
to 24,255 tonnes.