Egypt Infrastructure Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 12-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 73

BMI View: Once the fog of revolution has cleared, we expect a young and growing population to support

a strong 6.25% real growth between 2013 and 2016. However, with the above in mind, we highlight that

the sheer breadth of projects currently under consideration will require a huge investment drive, and will

be almost wholly reliant on FDI. As such, although we believe that growth will pick up from 2013 and

that ambitious plans to encourage investment pose an upside risk to our forecast, we note that the pace of

development will be restrained by issues pertaining to financing.

Construction activity has suffered throughout 2012, in line with our expectations, and we expect the

industry to face continued challenges in the months ahead. Q112 data revealed that the construction sector

underwent a 9.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction and overall we estimate that sector contracted by

around 6.0% in 2012.

Key trends and developments in the sector:

In November, the European Investment Bank (EIB) approved a EUR600mn loan for the Cairo

Metro-Line 3 project and has released the first EUR200mn tranche. The loan is for the third

phase of the Line 3 construction, extending the existing line by 17.7km, which will include 15

new stations. The first phase of the east-west metro line was inaugurated in February 2012,

running 4.2km, from Attaba to Abbasia in eastern Cairo. The second phase is under construction

and due to be completed by 2014, and the third phase is in the design stage. The loan is for an

extension that will take the line under the Nile to the western sections of Cairo.

In terms of aid, Egypt has been the beneficiary of a significant amount of Gulf Cooperation

Council (GCC) funds since last year's revolution. Egypt has recently received more than US$5bn

in loans and grants, including US$2bn from Qatar, and loans from Saudi Arabia and the Islamic

Development Bank. Representing the widening fiscal deficit and the rising costs of servicing

debt, Cairo has also recently requested for $4.8 billion in emergency funding from the

International Monetary Fund (IMF), and officials in the US have noted that the Obama

administration is close to providing US$1bn in debt relief - at the same time, 50 U.S.

corporations visited Egypt to explore investment opportunities.

It was announced in September that Qatar has agreed to pump a huge US$18bn worth of

investment into the Sinai region of Egypt, supporting our view that the country's construction

industry will pick up dramatically from 2013 onwards. The news came just days after the

Egyptian government revealed that discussions had been held over a vast development plan for

the region, and represents an increasing trend of Gulf - North African cooperation in the

infrastructure space. Noting the risks, we highlight that forthcoming projects will likely be

blighted by a dearth of financing options.

The Egyptian Government has made an annual budgetary provision of US$850mn for new city

infrastructure projects, it was reported in July. The US$850mn figure was disclosed by the

Egyptian Finance Ministry and represents the budget for the New Urban Committees Authority

(NUCA), whose agenda covers the establishment of new cities in the Egyptian periphery. It aims

to direct the population away from the overpopulated capital, Cairo.

Egypt Infrastructure Report Q1 2013

BMI Industry View ........................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Egypt Infrastructure Industry SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 8
Competitive Landscape .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Table: EQS Data ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Building Materials ........................................................................................................................................... 9
Global ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9
Middle East .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Cement Forecasts..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Table: Egypt Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2010-2016 ................................................................................................................ 18
Table: Egypt Cement Production and Consumption Long Term Forecast, 2015-2021 ........................................................................................ 18
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Egypt Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016 ........................................................................................................... 19
Table: Egypt Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-20121 ............................................................................................. 20
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................................................. 21
Transport Infrastructure............................................................................................................................... 24
Outlook and Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Major Projects Table - Transport............................................................................................................................................................................ 27
Table: Major Projects -Transport ...................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure ............................................................................................................... 29
Outlook and Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities ........................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities ..................................................................................................................................................... 31
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure ...................................................... 35
Outlook and Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure .................................................................................. 38
Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure ............................................................................ 38
Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................................... 41
Egypt's Risk/Rewards ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Risks .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Regional Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Middle East Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................................................ 42
Table: Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings.......................................................................................................................................... 46
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 48
Arab Contractors ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) ............................................................................................................................................................. 50
Global Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 53
Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 60
Industry Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Construction Industry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
Data Methodology .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 61
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors .................................................................................................................................................................. 61
Construction ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Capital Investment .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 64
Construction Sector Employment ........................................................................................................................................................................ 64
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings ......................................................................................................................................................................... 65
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators ...................................................................................................................................... 66
Project Finance Ratings ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
Table: Design And Construction Phase .............................................................................................................................................................. 68
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction.......................................................................................................... 69
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities .................................................................................................................. 70
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport .................................................................................................................................. 71
Sources..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 72Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 6
France Political SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
France Economic SWOT ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
France Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Global Political Outlook ................................................................................................................................. 8
Europe Security Overview ............................................................................................................................ 13
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ...................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Europe In A Global Context ................................................................................................................................................................................ 13
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade ......................................................................................................................................... 13
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU ................................................................................................................................................................. 13
EU Expansion ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US .................................................................................................................................................... 14
Post-Qadhafi Libya ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Relations With Russia ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Relations With Turkey ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
The Balkans ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
Organised Crime................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Islamist Terrorism ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
The Greater Black Sea Region ............................................................................................................................................................................ 18
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute ........................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................... 21
BMI's Security Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ....................................................................................................................... 22
Political Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 24
Domestic Politics ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Long-Term Political Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Security Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 29
Internal Security Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Latest Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Timeline: Internal Threats .................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
External Security Situation ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Armed Forces And Defence Industry .......................................................................................................... 34
Defence Decision Making ................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Grand Strategy .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Order of Battle .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Defence Modernisation ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
International Deployments and Joint Exercises .................................................................................................................................................. 45
Table: Principal Deployments Of The French Armed Forces .............................................................................................................................. 48
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ............................................................................................................................................................................ 49
Market Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 51
Arms Trade Overview .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 53
Exports ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 53
Imports ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 54
Table: Key Players In The French Defence Industry .......................................................................................................................................... 55
Procurement Trends and Developments ............................................................................................................................................................. 56
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 58
Armed Forces ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Table: France's Armed Forces, 2002-2008, (?000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) ....................................................................................... 58
Table: France Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017, (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) .................................................. 58
Table: France's Defence Exports, 2010-2017, (US$mn) .................................................................................................................................... 59
Table: France's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ..................................................................................................................................... 59
Table: France's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ........................................................................................................................... 60
Defence Expenditure ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 60
Table: France's Government Expenditure On Defence Industry, 2010-2017 ...................................................................................................... 61
Table: France's Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) ......................................................................................... 61
Macroeconomic Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Table: France - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .................................................................................................................................................. 65
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 66
Dassault Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 66
DCNS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
EADS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 69
Thales ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 71
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 73
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 73
Defence Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 73
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 74BMI Industry View ........................................................................................................................................... 7
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 9
France Food Industry SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................ 9
France Drink Industry SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10
France Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................... 11
Business Environment ................................................................................................................................. 12
BMI's Core Global Industry Views .......................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Core Views .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings ...................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Western Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10) ...................................................................... 23
Table: Western Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings ..................................................................................................................... 26
France's Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings ......................................................................................................................................................... 27
Macroeconomic Outlook .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Table: Economic Activity .................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 35
Consumer Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Food ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Food Consumption .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 .............................................................................................. 37
Prepared Food/Canned Food ............................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................ 38
Confectionery ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ....................................................................................... 38
Drink ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Hot Drinks .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts ............................................................................................................................. 39
Soft Drinks .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................... 40
Alcoholic Drinks ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 .................................................................................. 43
Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 44
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 .................................................................................................... 45
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format .............................................................................................................................................................. 45
Trade ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................ 46
Food ............................................................................................................................................................... 47
Key Industry Trends And Developments .................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Peltz Plots Changes At Danone .......................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Lactalis Acquires Slovenian Dairy ...................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Bongrain Points To Challenge Of Innovation ..................................................................................................................................................... 49
Campbell Diversifies For Growth In France ...................................................................................................................................................... 50
Doux Files For Receivership .............................................................................................................................................................................. 51
French Food Sector Grew In 2011...................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Inward And Outward Investment Continues ....................................................................................................................................................... 52
Bonduel Demonstrates Emerging Market Appetite ............................................................................................................................................. 52
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