Ecuador Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 86

BMI View: Ecuador's upstream sector will suffer from the broader industry downturn through the

remainder of the decade, but its downstream sector will shift to net exporter status by 2018.

Our modest growth forecast is as a result of increased private sector participation, but continued

uncertainty regarding greenfield investments temper our enthusiasm.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

? We maintained our forecast for Ecuadorian liquids production to account for increased investment into its

mature oil assets. We now expect the country to return to growth in 2016 as oilfield services (OFS)

providers boost output from existing projects.

? The controversial ITT heavy oil field project advanced in July following the spudding of Petroamazonas'

first well in the Tiputini field in April. Located on the fringe of the Yasuni National Park, the

development of Block 43 in the Amazon rainforest has continued despite strong grassroots and

international opposition to the project given the environmentally sensitive nature of the area. In July, the

government announced the field held more that 750mn bbl more than originally expected, encouraging

our more optimistic reserve outlook. First oil from the area is expected before the end of the year, with

production expected to reach 20,000b/d by December.

? The start-up of the modernised Esmeraldas refinery in Q415 is weighing on Ecuador's net crude exports

as imported supplies are used to feed the facility.

? With respect to gas, activity remains centred on bolstering output from Block 6 in the Gulf of Guayaquil.

While there has been some investment into further exploration, we believe production of natural gas will

remain minimal such that output will begin to slip toward the mid-point of our forecast period.

Ecuador Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Ecuador - Key Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) 21
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) 21
Upstream Production - Gas 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) 24
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) 24
Refining 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2020-2025) 28
Refined Fuels Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025) 31
Gas Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Oil 35
Crude Oil Trade: Latest Updates 35
Crude Oil Trade: Structural Trends 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2020) 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) 37
Fuels Trade: Latest Updates 37
Fuels Trade: Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025) 42
Industry Risk/Reward Index 43
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 43
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings 44
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 45
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit 48
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Ecuador - Risk/Reward Index 51
Upstream Index 51
Downstream Index 52
Market Overview 53
Ecuador Energy Market Overview 53
Licensing And Regulation 53
Government Policy 53
Licensing Rounds 54
International Energy Relations 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 57
Oil Refineries 57
Table: Refineries In Ecuador 58
Service Stations 59
Oil Pipelines 59
Oil Storage 60
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Key Upstream Players 62
Table: Key Downstream Players 62
Company Profile 63
Petroecuador/Petromazonas 63
Latest Updates 63
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Ecuador 64
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 64
Regional Overview 66
Latin America Overview 66
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 77
Glossary 79
Table: Glossary Of Terms 79
Methodology 81
Industry Forecast Methodology 81
Source 83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 83
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 85
Table: Weighting 86

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Ecuador 2014-2020)
Table: Ecuador - Key Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ecuador 2020-2025)
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Refineries In Ecuador
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Ecuador
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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