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BMI View: This quarter our fundamental assumptions for Denmark continue to be relevant. Taking into
account positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to
expect power consumption growth in 2016. Similarly, we maintain our long-held view that, while growth
expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the
consumption and generation outlook of the country, as more regional instability could undermine their
economic activity. Overall we expect thermal energy generation to decline over our forecast period in line
with the country's Green energy agenda. We also believe that, as part of its effort to expand cleaner sources
of baseload power, the Government will look to boost biomass projects through coal conversions.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? Curbed subsidy support for solar power, in the form of annual degressions, coupled with less lucrative
electricity repurchase regulation, will curb capacity deployment in Denmark's solar sector over the next
five years - ensuring more sustainable growth rates. Denmark will register stable growth in solar power
capacity over the next five years overall and we forecast solar capacity to expand by an annual average of
7.4% between 2016 and 2025.
? The Danish minority government under Lars Lokke Rasmussen appears intent on rolling back the
country's emission targets, to tackle Denmark's widening budget deficit by removing costly emission
policies. As such, Climate Minister Lars Christian Lilleholt announced that previous plans to cut CO2
emissions by 40%, compared to 1995 levels, will be watered down to 37%. While this entails continued
reduction and is still much higher than the EU average, the potential for policy slippage will instil some
caution in investors looking to the market.
? We maintain a robust outlook for biomass power for this quarter as we expect government aims to
expand cleaner sources of baseload power, to curb carbon emissions and balance intermittent wind
power, will boost growth in the segment. This dynamic will be reinforced by thermal power generators
increasingly considering converting their power plants from hydrocarbon feedstock to biomass in order to
enter positive margin territory.