Denmark Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 52

BMI View: This quarter our fundamental assumptions for Denmark continue to be relevant. Taking into

account positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to

expect power consumption growth in 2016. Similarly, we maintain our long-held view that, while growth

expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the

consumption and generation outlook of the country, as more regional instability could undermine their

economic activity. Overall we expect thermal energy generation to decline over our forecast period in line

with the country's Green energy agenda. We also believe that, as part of its effort to expand cleaner sources

of baseload power, the Government will look to boost biomass projects through coal conversions.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Curbed subsidy support for solar power, in the form of annual degressions, coupled with less lucrative

electricity repurchase regulation, will curb capacity deployment in Denmark's solar sector over the next

five years - ensuring more sustainable growth rates. Denmark will register stable growth in solar power

capacity over the next five years overall and we forecast solar capacity to expand by an annual average of

7.4% between 2016 and 2025.

? The Danish minority government under Lars Lokke Rasmussen appears intent on rolling back the

country's emission targets, to tackle Denmark's widening budget deficit by removing costly emission

policies. As such, Climate Minister Lars Christian Lilleholt announced that previous plans to cut CO2

emissions by 40%, compared to 1995 levels, will be watered down to 37%. While this entails continued

reduction and is still much higher than the EU average, the potential for policy slippage will instil some

caution in investors looking to the market.

? We maintain a robust outlook for biomass power for this quarter as we expect government aims to

expand cleaner sources of baseload power, to curb carbon emissions and balance intermittent wind

power, will boost growth in the segment. This dynamic will be reinforced by thermal power generators

increasingly considering converting their power plants from hydrocarbon feedstock to biomass in order to

enter positive margin territory.

Denmark Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Denmark 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Denmark Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Denmark 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Denmark 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Denmark Power Forecast Scenario 11
Thermal Generation And Thermal Generating Capacity 12
Renewables Generation and Renewables Power Generating Capacity 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2019) 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2020-2025) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2019) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2020-2025) 17
Electricity Consumption 18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2019) 18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2020-2025) 19
Transmission & Distribution 19
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2019) 20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2020-2025) 21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 22
NAWE Power Risk/Reward Index 22
Denmark Power Risk/Reward Index 28
Market Overview 30
Key Policies and Market Structure 30
Regulation And Competition 30
Sustainable Energy Policies 31
Pricing 33
Denmark Power Project Database 34
Table: Denmark Power - Top 10 Projects By Capacity (MW) 34
Competitive Landscape 36
DONG Energy 36
Vattenfall 36
E.ON 37
Fortum 37
Regional Overview 38
NAWE Power Key Themes 38
Glossary 46
Table: Glossary Of Terms 46
Methodology 47
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecast Methodology 47
Sources 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Denmark 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Denmark 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Denmark 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Denmark 2020-2025)
Table: Denmark Power - Top 10 Projects By Capacity (MW)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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