Czech Republic Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 57

BMI View: Power generation growth will be mostly stagnant in Czech Republic with a decline forecast for

2020 and 2022 as the Temelín nuclear reactors are decommissioned. Thermal power will remain the

dominant source of power generation to plug the deficit left by nuclear power decommissioning, while

development of non-hydropower renewables will be held back by lack of government support for FiTs. Slow

progress in getting new nuclear capacity online will result in Czech Republic becoming a net-electricity

importer by the end of 2025.

Latest Updates and Structural Trends

? We expect that coal-fired capacity will remain the most utilised fuel source for power in Czech Republic.

Scheduled maintenance of nuclear reactors has increased the requirement for raised thermal power

output. The pending modernisation of the Pruné?ov power plant further underscores this view.

? We have revised our nuclear power generation forecasts for Czech Republic. Despite previous flawed

safety checks, all four reactors at the Dukovany nuclear plant will continue to operate post-2025. We

have therefore increased our nuclear power generation forecasts for 2025 from a level of 11.3 terawatt

hours (TWh) to 15.1TWh.

? ?EZ has announced that all four units at the Dukovany nuclear reactor will continue to operate until

2035, with plans to construct replacement units for the existing units by that time.

? ?EZ announced in May that it will be investing up to EUR2.2bn in renewable energy outside of Czech

Republic. We believe that this is indicative of the unfavourable investment environment for renewable

energy in Czech Republic, therefore we have not altered our muted forecasts for non-hydropower

renewable electricity in Czech Republic.

? Our transmission and distribution losses forecasts for Czech Republic remain mostly unchanged from last

quarter. We expect that losses as percentage of total output will decrease from 4.7% to 3.3% over our 10-

year forecast period.

? While we originally forecasted that Czech Republic will become a net-electricity importer by 2025, we

now expect the effect to be much more muted based on the extension of the operating licence of the

Dukovany nuclear reactors as well as increased focus on thermal capacity.

Czech Republic Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Czech Republic 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Czech Republic Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Czech Republic Power Forecast Scenario 11
Thermal Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Nuclear Generation And Power Generating Capacity 13
Table: Czech Nuclear Reactor Capacity And Decommissioning Dates 14
Renewables Generation And Power Generating Capacity 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 20
Transmission & Distribution 21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 22
Industry Risk/Reward Index 23
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 23
Czech Republic Power Risk/Reward Index 30
Rewards 30
Risks 30
Market Overview 32
Key Policies And Market Structure 32
Regulation And Competition 32
Sustainable Energy Policies 33
Pricing 35
Table: Half-yearly Electricity And Gas Prices, H2, 2012-2014 (EUR per kWh) 36
Czech Republic Power Projects Database 37
Table: Czech Republic - Top Power Projects By Capacity 37
Competitive Landscape 38
CEZ 38
CEPS 39
PRE 39
E.ON 39
Company Profile 40
CEZ 40
Table: CEZ's Strategic Programmes 41
Regional Overview 43
CEE Power Regional Overview 43
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 52
Methodology And Sources 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Czech Republic 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Czech Nuclear Reactor Capacity And Decommissioning Dates
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Half-yearly Electricity And Gas Prices, H2, 2012-2014 (EUR per kWh)
Table: Czech Republic - Top Power Projects By Capacity
Table: ?EZ's Strategic Programmes
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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