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BMI View: Power generation growth will be mostly stagnant in Czech Republic with a decline forecast for
2020 and 2022 as the Temelín nuclear reactors are decommissioned. Thermal power will remain the
dominant source of power generation to plug the deficit left by nuclear power decommissioning, while
development of non-hydropower renewables will be held back by lack of government support for FiTs. Slow
progress in getting new nuclear capacity online will result in Czech Republic becoming a net-electricity
importer by the end of 2025.
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
? We expect that coal-fired capacity will remain the most utilised fuel source for power in Czech Republic.
Scheduled maintenance of nuclear reactors has increased the requirement for raised thermal power
output. The pending modernisation of the Pruné?ov power plant further underscores this view.
? We have revised our nuclear power generation forecasts for Czech Republic. Despite previous flawed
safety checks, all four reactors at the Dukovany nuclear plant will continue to operate post-2025. We
have therefore increased our nuclear power generation forecasts for 2025 from a level of 11.3 terawatt
hours (TWh) to 15.1TWh.
? ?EZ has announced that all four units at the Dukovany nuclear reactor will continue to operate until
2035, with plans to construct replacement units for the existing units by that time.
? ?EZ announced in May that it will be investing up to EUR2.2bn in renewable energy outside of Czech
Republic. We believe that this is indicative of the unfavourable investment environment for renewable
energy in Czech Republic, therefore we have not altered our muted forecasts for non-hydropower
renewable electricity in Czech Republic.
? Our transmission and distribution losses forecasts for Czech Republic remain mostly unchanged from last
quarter. We expect that losses as percentage of total output will decrease from 4.7% to 3.3% over our 10-
year forecast period.
? While we originally forecasted that Czech Republic will become a net-electricity importer by 2025, we
now expect the effect to be much more muted based on the extension of the operating licence of the
Dukovany nuclear reactors as well as increased focus on thermal capacity.