Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 70

BMI View: The Czech Republic will remain highly dependent on imported oil and gas, mostly from Russia,

as conventional hydrocarbons production potential is limited. However the country will manage to slowly

diversify its gas sources through the STORK II project linking the country to Poland. This will provide it

with access to Polish gas and imported LNG from the ?winouj?cie liquefied natural gas terminal.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

? While the country's shale gas potential could be promising, a moratorium on shale gas exploration and

public opposition to the practice make exploration unlikely in the short-to-medium term.

? The Czech Republic produces negligible volumes of domestic gas or oil, with limited upside risk to

future production, meaning the country will remain significantly dependent on Russian hydrocarbon

imports within our forecast period.

? The country is a small consumer of refined fuels. We forecast a relatively strong rise in refined fuels

consumption the forecast period, pulled up by the robust growth in vehicle growth and a strong industrial

sector.

? The country imports most of its required crude oil from Russia and is a small net importer of refined

products. We expect the Czech Republic will continue to be largely dependent on Russian crude imports,

while the country will see an increase in refined products net import requirements to answer rising

domestic demand over our forecast period.

? Current production at the Litvínov refinery continues running at a significantly reduced capacity

following an explosion at the neighbouring petrochemical complex in August 2015. A return to full

production is unlikely before Q316. This has likely impacted H215 refined fuels production and will

likely impact 2016 production. We therefore point to downside risk to our 2015 refined fuels production

estimate and to our 2016 forecast. Similarly, this yields upside risk to refined fuel net imports for 2015

and 2016, and downside risks to net crude oil imports on the back of lower crude oil feed through.

Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 14
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 14
Upstream Production - Gas 15
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 16
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 16
Refining 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 19
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 20
Refined Fuels Consumption 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 23
Gas Consumption 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 26
Trade - Oil 27
Crude Trade Forecast 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2020) 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 29
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 35
Industry Risk Reward Index 36
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 36
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 37
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 40
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Czech Republic - Risk/Reward Index 44
Upstream Index - Overview 44
Upstream Index - Rewards 44
Upstream Index - Risks 45
Downstream Index - Overview 45
Market Overview 46
Energy Market Overview 46
Regulatory Structure 46
Upstream Fiscal And Licensing Regime 46
Operational Environment 46
Political Environment 47
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 48
Oil Refineries 48
Table: Refineries In Czech Republic 48
Service Stations 48
Oil Storage Facilities 49
Oil Pipeline 49
Gas Storage Facilities 50
Gas Pipelines 51
Competitive Landscape 53
Competitive Landscape Summary 53
Table: Key Players - Czech Oil And Gas Sector 54
Table: Key Upstream Player 54
Table: Key Downstream Players 55
Regional Overview 56
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 56
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 56
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 57
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 58
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 59
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 60
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 61
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 62
Glossary 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Source 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 69
Table: Weighting 70

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2020)
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Refineries In Czech Republic
Table: Key Players - Czech Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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