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BMI View: The Czech Republic will remain highly dependent on imported oil and gas, mostly from Russia,
as conventional hydrocarbons production potential is limited. However the country will manage to slowly
diversify its gas sources through the STORK II project linking the country to Poland. This will provide it
with access to Polish gas and imported LNG from the ?winouj?cie liquefied natural gas terminal.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
? While the country's shale gas potential could be promising, a moratorium on shale gas exploration and
public opposition to the practice make exploration unlikely in the short-to-medium term.
? The Czech Republic produces negligible volumes of domestic gas or oil, with limited upside risk to
future production, meaning the country will remain significantly dependent on Russian hydrocarbon
imports within our forecast period.
? The country is a small consumer of refined fuels. We forecast a relatively strong rise in refined fuels
consumption the forecast period, pulled up by the robust growth in vehicle growth and a strong industrial
? The country imports most of its required crude oil from Russia and is a small net importer of refined
products. We expect the Czech Republic will continue to be largely dependent on Russian crude imports,
while the country will see an increase in refined products net import requirements to answer rising
domestic demand over our forecast period.
? Current production at the Litvínov refinery continues running at a significantly reduced capacity
following an explosion at the neighbouring petrochemical complex in August 2015. A return to full
production is unlikely before Q316. This has likely impacted H215 refined fuels production and will
likely impact 2016 production. We therefore point to downside risk to our 2015 refined fuels production
estimate and to our 2016 forecast. Similarly, this yields upside risk to refined fuel net imports for 2015
and 2016, and downside risks to net crude oil imports on the back of lower crude oil feed through.