We have altered our forecasts for a possible positive growth in the Czech Republic’s construction industry value in 2013 to -2.2 year-on-year (y-o-y) real growth, as we have downgraded our forecasts for the year 2012 to -11.4 y-o-y real growth, this marginal divergence in our estimates is partly due to a revision in our historical data back in 1997, but also since no optimistic plans for the industry were seen and as slow rates remain in the European economic growth. Furthermore, due to strained cash flow, a cap on public spending, a previous freeze on EU funds and the repercussions of a tough financial climate, the risks are weighted to the downside. We expect the market to tentatively enter positive territory from 2014 onwards (we forecast annual average real growth of 3.22% between 2014 and 2022), hopes of a robust recovery remain a distant possibility.
The factors underpinning our cautious outlook for the sector over the forecast period are:
- In spring 2012 the European Union implemented a freeze to the funds directed towards the Czech Republic, due to government’s mismanagement of previous such funds. After an agreement for the auditing of EU funding to be carried out by the Finance Ministry, to the satisfaction of EU authorities, the flow of funding has now been renewed to the Czech Republic.