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BMI View: Continued political instability coupled with a bleak economic outlook will continue to repress
the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors in Croatia. Necessary austerity measures will impose further
barriers towards growth and reduce the use of high-value patented drugs, highlighting minimal revenue
earning opportunities for multinational pharmaceutical firms.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: HRK6.73bn (USD860mn) in 2015 to HRK6.70bn (USD930mn) in 2016; - 0.3% in
local currency and 8.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised upward.
? Healthcare: HRK26.2bn (USD3.34bn) in 2015 to HRK26.7bn (USD3.70bn) in 2016; 2.0% in local
currency and 10.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised upward.
Despite its accession to the EU, Croatia offers little in the way of growth prospects over the long term.
Croatia recorded a score of 48.4 out of 100 in our Q416 Risk/Reward Index (RRI), making it the 15th most
attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe. Croatia's RRI score this quarter improved
from 46.0 in Q316 but it still remains poor owing to the depreciation of the Croatian kuna against the dollar
and our concerns over the country's economic outlook impacting our pharmaceutical sales forecasts.