Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 69

BMI View: With snap elections called after a scandal relating to the oil and gas sector, a future

government could challenge the award of six onshore blocks. Contracts for the licenses were signed more

than a year after the bidding round, underlining concerns about unpredictable investment climate. Officials

have said that they are now considering a floating proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, with a

final decision on the project delayed until 2017.

Main Trends And Developments In Croatia's Oil And Gas Sector

? Political uncertainty has slowed activity in Croatia's oil and gas sector. In June, the government awarded

five onshore production sharing agreements from a bidding round held the previous year. Contracts were

signed with INA, Vermillion and Oanda but the delay underlined concerns about an unpredictable

investment climate.

? Fresh elections have been set for September but downside risks to upstream activity may remain well

after the vote. For example, the contracts that have been awarded may come under scrutiny from a future

parliament, which may be led by the socialist opposition. Uncertainty surrounding the composition of the

government, and its approach to the oil and gas sector, may also persist beyond the poll.

• In June, the Croatian government ordered LNG Croatia (LNG Hrvatska) to speed up the first phase of

the project, which includes setting up the floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) on Krk island.

A final investment decision on the project could come in early 2017. Though the project has support

across the political spectrum, a change in government following new elections set for September could

result in delays or uncertainty for the project.

? A land-based LNG import terminal could still be constructed according to Croatian officials. However

some reports suggested such a terminal could come five to ten years after the initial floating import unit

came online.

Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Croatia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Croatia 2014-2019) 13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Croatia 2020-2025) 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Croatia 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Croatia 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Gas Production (Croatia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Croatia 2020-2025) 19
Refining 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Croatia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Croatia 2020-2025) 22
Refined Fuels Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Croatia 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Croatia 2020-2025) 26
Gas Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Croatia 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Croatia 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Crude Oil 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Croatia 2014-2020) 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Croatia 2020-2025) 30
Fuels Trade 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Croatia 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Croatia 2020-2025) 31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Croatia 2014-2019) 31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Croatia 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Updates 32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Croatia 2014-2019) 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Croatia 2020-2025) 34
Industry Risk Reward Index 36
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 36
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 36
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 37
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 40
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Croatia - Risk/Reward Index 44
Market Overview 46
Croatia Energy Market Overview 46
Regulatory Structure 46
Fiscal Regime 47
Table: Croatia - Upstream Tax Regime 47
Licensing Regime 47
Table: Croatia - Contracts and Licensing Regime 47
Licensing Rounds 47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 49
Oil Refineries 49
Table: Oil Refineries In Croatia 49
Oil Storage Facilities 49
Oil Terminals/Ports 50
Table: Croatia Oil Terminals & Ports 50
LNG 50
Table: Existing And Planned LNG Terminals 50
Table: Croatia - Gas Storage Terminal 50
Gas Pipeline 51
Table: Croatia - Natural Gas Pipeline 51
Crude Oil Pipelines 51
Table: Croatia - Crude Oil Pipelines 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Competitive Landscape Summary 52
Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector 54
Table: Key Upstream Players 54
Table: Key Downstream Players 54
Regional Overview 55
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 55
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 55
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 56
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 57
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 58
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 59
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 60
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 61
Glossary 62
Table: Glossary Of Terms 62
Methodology 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Source 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 68
Table: Weighting 69

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Croatia 2014-2020)
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Oil Production (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Croatia 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude And Products (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Croatia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Croatia 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Croatia - Upstream Tax Regime
Table: Croatia - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Table: Oil Refineries In Croatia
Table: Croatia Oil Terminals & Ports
Table: Existing And Planned LNG Terminals
Table: Croatia - Gas Storage Terminal
Table: Croatia - Natural Gas Pipeline
Table: Croatia - Crude Oil Pipelines
Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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