Construction in Indonesia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022

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Date: 11-Jun-2018
No. of pages: 43
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Construction in Indonesia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022

Summary

The Indonesian construction industry is expected to continue to grow over the forecast period (2018-2022). Government investments in transport infrastructure, energy and utilities construction and residential buildings will contribute to this growth. Moreover, the National Development Program 2025 and National Affordable Housing Program will also support industry growth.

In January 2018, the government announced a plan to spend IDR105.4 trillion (US$7.6 billion) to build 17 toll road projects Under the National Strategic Project by the end of 2019. Moreover, under the third phase (2015-2019) of the National Development Program 2025, the government plans to invest IDR4.8 quadrillion (US$360.6 billion) on the development of transport and other infrastructure by the end of 2019. The government is also intending to introduce a Limited Concession Scheme (LCS) for private partners to finance large infrastructure construction projects.

The industry's output value in real terms is expected to record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.94% over the forecast period, compared to 6.33% during the review period (2013-2017).

Timetric's Construction in Indonesia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022 report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Indonesian construction industry, including -

- The Indonesian construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Indonesian construction industry

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Key Highlights

- Timetric expects the infrastructure construction market to retain its leading position over the forecast period, with a share of 36.0% of the industry's total value in 2022, driven by investments in transport infrastructure projects. In the 2018 budget, the government increased its investment on infrastructure development by 4.4%, increasing from IDR387.7 trillion (US$29.0 billion) in 2017 to IDR404.0 trillion (US$29.9 billion) in 2018. Through this, the government plans to build 856.0km of new road, 781.0km of irrigation channels, 8,761.0km of new bridges and 639.0km of new railway lines across the country.

- In March 2018, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources approved Rencana Umum Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) 2018-2027, a ten-year electricity supply business plan. According to RUPTL, electricity demand in the country is projected to increase by 8.6% annually, going from 216.8TWh in 2016 to 457.0TWh in 2025. PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), the state-owned power company, estimates that IDR2.0 quadrillion (US$153.7 billion) in capital investment will be required to develop the country's electricity system by 2027.

- Timetric expects the residential construction market output to record a forecast-period CAGR of 8.41% in nominal terms, driven by the government's plans to build affordable houses for low- and middle-income households. The government plans to build one million social houses with an investment of IDR66.8 trillion (US$5.0 billion) by 2019. In addition, the government is providing subsidies to low- and middle-income people to buy houses. In 2017, the government announced plans to provide IRD14.6 trillion (US$1.1 trillion) of subsidies to low income families.

- Under the National Energy Policy, the government aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the total energy mix from 12.6% in 2017 to 23% in 2025, 25% by 2030 and 31.0% by 2050. Accordingly, the government plans to increase the country's geothermal power generation capacity from 1.8GW in 2017 to 5.0GW by 2025. Moreover, the government plans to build 16 wind power plants by 2024.

- The total construction project pipeline in Indonesia, as tracked by the Construction Intelligence Center (CIC) and including all mega projects with a value above US$25 million, stands at IDR8.5 quadrillion (US$634.4 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, has a relatively healthy balance, with 47.7% of the pipeline value being in projects in the pre-planning and planning stages as of May 2018.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Indonesia. It provides -

- Historical (2013-2017) and forecast (2018-2022) valuations of the construction industry in Indonesia, featuring details of key growth drivers.

- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants.

Reasons to buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using Timetric's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

- Understand the latest industry and market trends.

- Formulate and validate strategy using Timetric's critical and actionable insight.

- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.

Construction in Indonesia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022

Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary
2 Construction Outlook: At-a-glance
3 Latest News and Indicators
4 Key Drivers and Risks
4.1 Economic Performance
4.2 Political Environment
4.3 Demographics
4.4 Risk Profile
5 Construction Outlook
5.1 All Construction
5.1.1 Outlook
5.1.2 Project analytics
5.2 Commercial Construction
5.2.1 Outlook
5.2.2 Project analytics
5.3 Industrial Construction
5.3.1 Outlook
5.3.2 Project analytics
5.4 Infrastructure Construction
5.4.1 Outlook
5.4.2 Project analytics
5.5 Energy and Utilities Construction
5.5.1 Outlook
5.5.2 Project analytics
5.6 Institutional Construction
5.6.1 Outlook
5.6.2 Project analytics
5.7 Residential Construction
5.7.1 Outlook
5.7.2 Project analytics
6 Key Industry Participants
6.1 Contractors
6.2 Consultants
7 Appendix
7.1 What is this Report About?
7.2 Definitions
7.3 About Timetric
7.4 About The Construction Intelligence Center
7.5 Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Indonesia, Key Economic Indicators
Table 2: Indonesia, Construction Output Value (nominal, IDR Billion)
Table 3: Indonesia, Construction Output Value (nominal, US$ Million)
Table 4: Indonesia, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value
Table 5: Indonesia, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value
Table 6: Indonesia, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value
Table 7: Indonesia, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value
Table 8: Indonesia, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value
Table 9: Indonesia, Top Residential and Mixed-Use Construction Projects by Value
Table 10: Indonesia, Key Contractors
Table 11: Indonesia, Key Consultants
Table 12: Timetric Construction Market Definitions
Table 13: Construction Risk Index Ratings and Scores

List of Tables
Figure 1: Key Markets, Construction Output Growth Matrix and Risk Matrix
Figure 2: Indonesia, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (IDR Trillion)
Figure 3: Indonesia, House Prices Index
Figure 4: Indonesia, Commercial buildings demand index
Figure 5: Indonesia, Risk Comparison, Q1 2018
Figure 6: Indonesia, Risk Comparison Review
Figure 7: Indonesia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ billion, 2017 prices and exchange rate)
Figure 8: Indonesia, Construction Output Value, Growth Matrix
Figure 9: Indonesia, Construction Output Value, by Sector (IDR trillion), 2013-2022
Figure 10: Indonesia, Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (IDR trillion), 2017-2022
Figure 11: Indonesia, Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 12: Indonesia, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (IDR trillion), 2013-2022
Figure 13: Indonesia, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 14: Indonesia, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 15: Indonesia, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (IDR trillion), 2013-2022
Figure 16: Indonesia, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 17: Indonesia, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 18: Indonesia, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (IDR trillion), 2013-2022
Figure 19: Indonesia, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 20: Indonesia, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 21: Indonesia, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (IDR trillion), 2013-2022
Figure 22: Indonesia, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 23: Indonesia, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 24: Indonesia, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (IDR trillion), 2013-2022
Figure 25: Indonesia, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 26: Indonesia, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 27: Indonesia, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (IDR trillion), 2013-2022
Figure 28: Indonesia, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 29: Indonesia, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Projected Annual Spending by Stage (IDR trillion)
Figure 30: Indonesia, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)
Figure 31: Indonesia, Headquarters of Foreign Contractors (% of Project Pipeline with Foreign Contractor)
Figure 32: Indonesia, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)
Figure 33: Indonesia, Headquarters of Foreign Consultants (% of Project Pipeline with Foreign Consultants)
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