Congo-Brazzaville, Congo, Dem. Rep. and Burundi Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 105

BMI View: Significant upside and downside risks to our outlook for the Democratic Republic of the Congo

include the possible arrival of new market entrants, as well as consolidation among existing operators. For

Congo-Brazzaville, we believe that limited subscriber uptake in rural areas means that subscription growth

will tick modestly upwards for the duration of our forecast period. Burundi's mobile market is viewed as

one of the most competitive in the region, with four active mobile operators serving a population of around

10mn. Vietnam-backed Viettel has made significant headway into Burundi, launching 4G services in 2016,

which has injected a new competitive dynamic.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)'s mobile market experienced strong growth in 2015, as

competition among operators lowered prices, leading to greater uptake of services. We are confident about

the country's prospects, but note that there are significant risks to the upside and the downside for our

outlook. These include the possible arrival of new market entrants, as well as consolidation among existing

operators.

For Congo-Brazzaville, we believe that subscriber uptake in rural areas means that subscriptions growth

will modestly tick upwards for the duration of our forecast period. We caution, however, that continued

growth could be partially offset by the further discounting of inactive SIMs.

Burundi's mobile market is viewed as one of the most competitive in region, with four active mobile

operators serving a population of around 10mn. We believe low income levels, low urbanisation rates and

limited funds for network expansion into underserved areas are among the major factors for the slow growth

of the country's mobile sector.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

? By the end of H116, we estimate that the Congo-Brazzaville mobile market had 4.374mn customers.

This was equivalent to a penetration rate of 91.4%, down from 101% at the end of H114. We now

predict that the number of mobile subscriptions will reach 4.528mn at the end of 2020. Our current

forecast expects the number of 3G subscriptions in Congo-Brazzaville to reach 1.84mn in 2020,

equivalent to 40.5% of the total mobile subscriber base.

Congo-Brazzaville, Congo, Dem. Rep. and Burundi Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Congo-Brazzaville Telecoms 9
DRC Telecoms 11
Burundi Telecoms 13
Industry Forecast 15
Congo-Brazzaville Industry Forecast 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2020) 19
DRC Industry Forecast 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (DRC 2013-2020) 24
Burundi Industry Forecast 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 2013-2020) 29
Industry Risk Reward Index 30
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 30
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 34
Congo-Brazzaville Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
DRC Industry Risk/Reward Index 36
Burundi Industry Risk/Reward Index 37
Market Overview 39
Congo-Brazzaville Market Overview 39
Market Drivers And Trends 39
Mobile 40
Wireline Voice And Broadband 44
DRC Market Overview 45
Market Drivers And Trends 45
Mobile 46
Wireline Voice And Broadband 50
Burundi Market Overview 51
Market Drivers And Trends 51
Mobile 52
Wireline Voice And Broadband 55
Pay-TV/Convergence 57
Regulatory Development 59
Regulatory Overview 59
Industry Risks 59
Regulatory Environment And Developments 60
Table: Regulatory Breakdown 60
Competitive Landscape 63
Table: Key Players 63
Table: Congo-Brazzaville Mobile Market Overview 64
Table: Airtel 64
Table: MTN 64
Table: Azur 65
Table: DRC Mobile Market Overview 65
Table: Vodacom DRC 65
Table: Airtel DRC 66
Table: CCT DRC 66
Table: Tigo DRC 66
Table: Supercell - DRC 67
Table: Africell - DRC 67
Table: Burundi Mobile Market Overview 67
Company Profile 68
Airtel Africa 68
MTN 73
Table: MTN Indicators, 2014-2015 77
Orange 79
Table: Orange's Proportional Subscriptions 82
Demographic Forecast 84
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 85
Table: Key Population Ratios (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 85
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 86
Table: Population By Age Group (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 86
Table: Population By Age Group % (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025) 87
Demographic Forecast 89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 91
Table: Key Population Ratios (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 91
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 92
Table: Population By Age Group (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 92
Table: Population By Age Group % (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025) 93
Demographic Forecast 94
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Burundi 1990-2025) 95
Table: Key Population Ratios (Burundi 1990-2025) 95
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Burundi 1990-2025) 96
Table: Population By Age Group (Burundi 1990-2025) 96
Table: Population By Age Group % (Burundi 1990-2025) 97
Glossary 99
Table: Glossary Of Terms 99
Methodology 101
Industry Forecast Methodology 101
Sources 103
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 103
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 104
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 105

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2020)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (DRC 2013-2020)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 2013-2020)
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016
Table: Regulatory Breakdown
Table: Key Players
Table: Congo-Brazzaville Mobile Market Overview
Table: Airtel
Table: MTN
Table: Azur
Table: DRC Mobile Market Overview
Table: Vodacom DRC
Table: Airtel DRC
Table: CCT DRC
Table: Tigo DRC
Table: Supercell - DRC
Table: Africell - DRC
Table: Burundi Mobile Market Overview
Table: MTN Indicators, 2014-2015
Table: Orange's Proportional Subscriptions
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Congo-Brazzaville 1990-2025)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Congo (DRC) 1990-2025)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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