Colombia Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 60

BMI View: With the rain finally returning and rivers such as the Magdalena flowing fast again, Colombia

appears to be finally getting over the worst. For months Colombia's electricity supply was threatened

following a nationwide drought brought on by El Niño that slowed the rivers that power the nation's grid.

The Government was only able to avoid blackouts thanks to a combination of a series of energy-saving

measures, an increase in imports of energy from Ecuador and the use of emergency oil-fired thermal

generators. The Minister of Mines and Energy, Germán Arce Zapata has so far announced that the country

will strengthen its electrical system to make it "more reliable and efficient" against climate phenomena such

as El Niño. However, with hydropower currently accounting for 70% of the country total generation, we

believe that the country will need considerable investments to diversify its energy supply, to meet the

increasing demand for power.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? The impacts of the drought created by the El Niño weather phenomenon will be the main driver of

developments in the Colombian power market in 2016. We expect a sharp fall in hydropower generation

in 2015-2016, which has forced additional diesel and natural gas-fired power plants to be dispatched. The

availability of excess thermal capacity to be used during periods of poor hydrology and plans to import

natural gas should both allow Colombia to avoid experiencing power cuts, albeit narrowly.

? Further policy support to the sector and the creation of the necessary power transmission infrastructure

will be required to kick-start Colombia's underdeveloped renewables industry. Until these conditions

materialise, distributed generation will be the most likely segment to see developments in the country,

owing to vast swathes of the Colombian territory not being connected to the electricity grid.

Colombia Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Colombia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Colombia Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Colombia 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Colombia 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Colombia Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 20
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 21
Electricity Consumption 22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 23
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019) 24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025) 24
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
LatAm Risk & Reward Index (RRI): Macroeconomic Dynamics Weighing On Outlook 25
Colombia Power Risk/Reward Index 32
Rewards 32
Risks 32
Market Overview 34
Key Policies And Market Structure 34
Regulation And Competition 34
Sustainable Energy Policies 35
Pricing 35
Colombia Power Projects Database 37
Table: Colombia - top 10 power projects by capacity 39
Competitive Landscape 41
Emgesa 41
Interconexion Electrica (ISA) 42
Empresas Públicas de Medellín (EPM) 42
Isagen 42
Union Fenosa/EPSA 42
Codensa 43
Empresa de Energía de Bogotá (EEB) 43
Company Profile 44
Interconexión Eléctrica SA (ISA) 44
Regional Overview 47
LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 47
Table: BMI'S Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 50
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector 50
Glossary 54
Table: Glossary Of Terms 54
Methodology 55
Methodology And Sources 55
Industry Forecast Methodology 55
Sources 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 58
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 60

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Colombia 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Colombia 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Colombia - top 10 power projects by capacity
Table: BMI'S Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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