Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 110

BMI View: Our outlook for Colombia's oil and gas sector remains downbeat as lower oil prices are

weighing on the development of upstream and downstream projects by national and international investors.

As such, further expansion of the sector will become increasingly dependent on state-owned Ecopetrol.

While the recent government's peace deal with FARC rebels should improve the operating environment, we

note the continued risk of attacks on oil and gas infrastructure due to the presence of other guerrilla

groups.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

? In August 2016, Colombia's national oil company Ecopetrol said it will intensify exploration activities in

the country and plans to drill 80 new wells until the end of 2016 on top of 25 wells which have been

drilled already in 2016. Most of the new wells will be located in Rubiales and Castilla fields.

? International oil companies in Colombia are continuing to face strong opposition against unconventional

oil and gas exploration using fracking. In August 2016, the media reported about another large protest in

Valparaiso.

? According to the country's Mines and Energy Ministry, the production levels declined to 888,000b/d in

June 2016, marking a 12% year-on-year decline.

? This quarter we have further downgraded our 2016 production forecast due to persisting attacks on the

country's mid-stream infrastructure. We now project crude oil and condensates output to decrease by

8.1% to 924,510b/d. Other liquids are forecast to add another 27,410b/d to that figure.

? We have slightly lowered our forecasts for Colombia's gas production as the country's national oil

company is focusing primarily on the oil sector, while the private investment into the gas sector is

declining. We now expect gas output to decline by 4.0% year-on-year to 9.4bcm in 2016. By 2025, we

expect the country's gas output to fall to 8.6bcm.

Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Colombia - Key Upstream Projects 16
Upstream Production - Oil 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2014-2019) 30
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2020-2025) 30
Upstream Production - Gas 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2014-2019) 34
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2020-2025) 35
Refining 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Colombia 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Colombia 2020-2025) 38
Refined Fuels Consumption 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2020-2025) 41
Gas Consumption 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019) 44
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025) 44
Trade - Oil 45
Crude Oil 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends 45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2020) 48
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025) 48
Refined Products 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019) 50
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025) 50
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 51
Latest Updates 51
Structural Trends 51
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019) 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025) 55
Industry Risk Reward Index 56
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 56
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 56
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings 57
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 58
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 59
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit 61
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 63
Colombia Risk/Reward Index 64
Upstream Index 64
Downstream Index 65
Market Overview 67
Colombia Energy Market Overview 67
Overview/State Role 67
Licensing And Regulation 68
Table: Royalty Rates 69
International Energy Relations 72
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 74
Refineries 74
Table: Refineries In Colombia 74
Service Stations 76
Oil Terminals/Ports 76
Oil Pipelines 76
LNG Terminals 80
Gas Pipelines 81
Competitive Landscape 82
Competitive Landscape Summary 82
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector 83
Company Profile 84
Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) 84
Latest Updates 84
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Colombia 85
Table: Key Financial Metrics (USDmn) 86
Pacific Exploration & Production 87
Table: E&P Subsidiaries 88
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Colombia 88
Table: Key Financials, USDmn 88
Regional Overview 90
Latin America Overview 90
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 101
Glossary 103
Table: Glossary Of Terms 103
Methodology 105
Industry Forecast Methodology 105
Source 107
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 107
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 109
Table: Weighting 110

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2014-2020)
Table: Colombia - Key Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2020-2025)
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Royalty Rates
Table: Refineries In Colombia
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Colombia
Table: Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
Table: E&P Subsidiaries
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Colombia
Table: Key Financials, USDmn
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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