China Consumer Electronics Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 12-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 60

BMI expects the China consumer electronics market will grow by around 9% in 2013. We forecast

headline consumer spending to grow at 8.0% in 2012 and 2013, which marks a downward revision from

our previous forecast of 8.4% for both years. The government's rural consumer electronics subsidy

programme should continue to drive flat-screen TV sets and other products and electronic vendors and

retailers are expanding and adjusting strategies to take advantage of this opportunity.

Vendors will look to newer technologies such as Smart TVs, LED TV sets and 3D TV sets, to drive sales.

Smartphones are estimated to account for above 40% of total handset sales in China, and this share will

pass 60% by 2017.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer hardware sales: US$80.3bn in 2012 to US$88.3bn in 2013, +10% in US dollar terms. Forecast

downwardly revised in US dollar terms due to macroeconomic factors, following a slowdown in H112.

AV sales: US$77.5bn in 2012 to US$84.7bn in 2013, +9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar

terms unchanged, with the main driver being demand for flat-screen TV sets.

Handset sales: US$42.4bn in 2012 to US$45.1bn in 2013, +7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar

terms downwardly revised, but with strong volume growth of smartphones.

Risk/Reward Ratings: China's score was 61 out of 100. China took 5th place in our latest RRR table,

but due to its vast market and rising penetration has potential to rise over time.

Key Trends & Developments

By the end of BMI's five-year forecast period, the rural PC and notebook market could account

for as much as 35-40% of total China computer sales. The subsidy programme will continue to

boost demand from the vast, under-penetrated rural areas. The lower-tier city and towns are

expected to be the fastest growing segment of the PC market in 2013, although this has placed

pressure on prices.

After two years of robust growth in the TV market, vendors will also look to third- and fourthtier

cities and rural areas to sustain demand for TV sets, after signs of slower sales in major

cities. . About 58% of LCD TVs are now sold through retail channels, with sales strongest

during holiday peak shopping periods. Despite a tranche of product innovations, average prices

declined in 2012, meaning that revenues growth failed to keep pace with shipments.

The tastes of Chinese consumers with regards to handsets also appears to be growing more

sophisticated, with China now a key engine driving the global smartphone market. China

Mobile forecasts sales of smartphones could reach 100mn units by 2013, while BMI projects

that sales could pass 500m units by 2017. Vendors such as Samsung expect that China will be

among their most important markets for smartphones.

China Consumer Electronics Report Q1 2013

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
China Consumer Electronics Market SWOT ......................................................................................................................................................... 7
China Electronics Industry SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................ 8
China Political SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
China Economic SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
China Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................ 12
Table: Asia Pacific CE Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 ........................................................................................................................................... 15
Market Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 16
Government Authority ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Computers ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Computers: Demand, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................................................................................. 16
AV ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: AV: Demand, 2010-2017 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Mobile Handsets ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Table: Handsets: Demand, 2010-2017................................................................................................................................................................ 24
Consumer Electronics Industry ................................................................................................................... 28
Table: IT Industry Overview, 2009-2016 ............................................................................................................................................................ 28
Table: China's IT & Electronics Industry Revenue Breakdown By Sector, 2011 ................................................................................................. 29
Table: China's IT & Electronics Industry Output Breakdown By Product .......................................................................................................... 29
Table: Semiconductors Demand, 2010-2017 ...................................................................................................................................................... 30
Computers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 31
Table: Computers, Production, 2010-2017 ......................................................................................................................................................... 31
Video, Audio And Gaming .................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Table: AV: Production, 2010-2017, (mn) ............................................................................................................................................................ 31
Table: China TV set production April 2011 - March 2012, (Units, 000) ............................................................................................................. 32
Mobile Handsets ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Table: Handsets, Production, 2010-2017, (mn) .................................................................................................................................................. 33
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017, (US$mn) ............................................................................................................................ 35
Industry Developments ................................................................................................................................ 36
Macroeconomic Forecast ............................................................................................................................. 38
Table: China - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .................................................................................................................................................... 40
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................... 41
Computers ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Handsets ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
AV ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Domestic Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................... 50
Semiconductor International Manufacturing Corp Public: HKEX, NYSE ........................................................................................................... 50
Lenovo ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 52
Country Snapshot ......................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ............................................................................................................................... 55
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ..................................................................................................................... 56
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ............................................................................................................................................. 57
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ................................................................................................................................... 57
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 58
Electronics Industry ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 58
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Colombian IT Sector SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Colombian Telecoms Industry SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Colombia Political SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Colombia Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Colombia Business Environment SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................. 10
Americas Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Americas IT Risk/Reward Ratings ........................................................................................................................................................... 13
Americas IT Markets Overview ..................................................................................................................... 14
IT Penetration .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Market Growth And Drivers .................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Sectors And Verticals ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 22
Government Authority .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Hardware ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Software ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Services .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Industry Developments............................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
Incentives For Offshoring Investment ...................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Industry Forecast .......................................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Colombia IT Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (US$mn Unless Otherwise Stated), 2010-2017 ........................................................ 37
Industry Forecast Internet ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 38
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 40
Hardware ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Software ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
IT Services ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Internet Competitive Landscape............................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Macroeconomic Forecast .............................................................................................................................. 47
Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016................................................................................................................ 48
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 49
IBM ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Dell ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Table: Selected Dell Mergers And Acquisitions .................................................................................................................................................. 59
Hewlett-Packard ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 60
Country Snapshot ......................................................................................................................................... 66
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ......................................................................................................................... 67
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ................................................................................................................ 68
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ....................................................................................................................................... 69
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .............................................................................................................................. 69
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 70
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 70
IT Industry .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 70
IT Ratings - Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
Table: IT Business Environment Indicators ........................................................................................................................................................ 72
Weighting ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 73
Table: Weighting Of Components ....................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 73BMI Industry View ........................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Colombia Mobile Market SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Colombia Wireline SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Colombia Political SWOT ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Colombia Economic SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Colombia Business Environment SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................. 10
Risk/Reward Ratings ..................................................................................................................................... 11
Latin America Risk Reward Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Q113 Risk/Reward Ratings ...................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Colombia ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 16
Table: Mobile - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................................................... 16
ARPU Forecast, 2010-2017 (COP) .................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Fixed Line ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Table: Fixed-Line - Historical Data And Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................... 20
Internet .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 22
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 24
Mobile ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
Regional Perspective .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Key Developments .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Market Growth ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Market Shares ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Table: Colombia Mobile Market Shares, Q212 .................................................................................................................................................. 28
Usage .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
MVNOs ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Networks ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
Mobile Content ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Colombia Mobile Internet Subscribers By Operator 2012 (?000) ............................................................................................................. 36
Table: Colombia Mobile Market Overview ......................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Claro ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Tigo ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Mobile Content ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Regional Overview .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Fixed Line ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 43
Pay TV ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Broadband ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Colombia Internet Subscribers By Department ....................................................................................................................................... 48
Table: Colombia Internet Subscribers By Type (000) 2011 ................................................................................................................................ 50
Industry Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................ 53
Key Market Developments .................................................................................................................................................................................. 53
Table: Key Market Developments ....................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Regulatory Environment............................................................................................................................... 55
Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In Colombia ......................................................................................................................................... 55
Background And Regulatory Bodies ................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Regulatory Developments ................................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Table: Regulatory Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................ 60
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 61
Key Players ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
Table: Key Players: Colombia Telecoms Sector ................................................................................................................................................. 61
Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters ................................................................................................................................................ 61
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 62
Claro (formerly Comcel)..................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Tigo (Colombia Móvil) ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 65
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 68
Table: Ericsson Global Quarterly Net Sales By Division (SEKmn) ..................................................................................................................... 68
Demographic Outlook ................................................................................................................................... 73
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ......................................................................................................................... 73
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ................................................................................................................ 74
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ....................................................................................................................................... 75
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .............................................................................................................................. 75
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 76
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............................................................................................................................................................. 76
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 76
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................. 78
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................................... 78
Ratings System .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78
Indicators ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 78
Table: Ratings Indicators ........................................................................................................................................................
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