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BMI View: The ramping up of production from Glencore and China National Petroleum Corporation's new
fields will support production increases in 2016 and 2017. Post-2017 there will be a gradual decline in
output as a poor project pipeline is unable to offset the falling production rates at the mature Doba field.
Despite large proven reserves and pipeline infrastructure in place, BMI believes that the poor business
environment and extraction problems that the consortium is facing will discourage further foreign
investment in Chad. Throughout our forecast period, Chad will remain a net exporter of refined fuels and
crude oil. The non-existent gas infrastructure gives us reason to believe that there will be no natural gas
production in our forecast period.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
? Consumption for refined fuels is set to increase throughout our forecast period at an average annual rate
of 4% y-o-y. Chad's refined fuel consumption starts from a low base, with the majority of demand
coming from the electricity sector.
Despite the last couple of years providing positive drilling results, exploration prospects are weak in
Chad throughout the forecast period. Capex cuts across all companies operating in Chad will limit
exploration activity. Simba Energy has ambitious exploration plans in Chad, covering the Erdis Block
III and the Chari Sud Blocks I and II. The exploratory programs include a range of surveys and
? Glencore maintains its position regarding a limited drilling campaign, waiting for a more favourable
price environment to maximise the commercial potential of its resource base.
? We expect oil production to rise in 2016 and 2017 as output ramps up from the fields that were brought
online in 2015. However the long term trend is downwards as decline rates at mature areas accelerate
with no new projects in the pipeline to offset the declines.