Chad Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 64

BMI View: The ramping up of production from Glencore and China National Petroleum Corporation's new

fields will support production increases in 2016 and 2017. Post-2017 there will be a gradual decline in

output as a poor project pipeline is unable to offset the falling production rates at the mature Doba field.

Despite large proven reserves and pipeline infrastructure in place, BMI believes that the poor business

environment and extraction problems that the consortium is facing will discourage further foreign

investment in Chad. Throughout our forecast period, Chad will remain a net exporter of refined fuels and

crude oil. The non-existent gas infrastructure gives us reason to believe that there will be no natural gas

production in our forecast period.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

? Consumption for refined fuels is set to increase throughout our forecast period at an average annual rate

of 4% y-o-y. Chad's refined fuel consumption starts from a low base, with the majority of demand

coming from the electricity sector.

• Despite the last couple of years providing positive drilling results, exploration prospects are weak in

Chad throughout the forecast period. Capex cuts across all companies operating in Chad will limit

exploration activity. Simba Energy has ambitious exploration plans in Chad, covering the Erdis Block

III and the Chari Sud Blocks I and II. The exploratory programs include a range of surveys and

exploration drilling.

? Glencore maintains its position regarding a limited drilling campaign, waiting for a more favourable

price environment to maximise the commercial potential of its resource base.

? We expect oil production to rise in 2016 and 2017 as output ramps up from the fields that were brought

online in 2015. However the long term trend is downwards as decline rates at mature areas accelerate

with no new projects in the pipeline to offset the declines.

Chad Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Chad 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Upstream Projects - Chad 12
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Oil Production (Chad 2014-2019) 15
Table: Oil Production (Chad 2020-2025) 16
Refining 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Chad 2014-2019) 18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Chad 2020-2025) 19
Refined Fuels Consumption 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Chad 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Chad 2020-2025) 21
Trade - Oil 22
Latest Updates 22
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Chad 2014-2020) 23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Chad 2020-2025) 24
Fuels Trade Forecasts 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Chad 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (2019-2025) 26
Industry Risk Reward Index 27
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 27
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 27
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 30
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 30
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 33
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 33
Chad - Risk/Reward Index 35
Upstream Index 35
Upstream Index - Rewards 35
Upstream Index - Risks 36
Downstream Index 36
Market Overview 37
Chad Energy Market Overview 37
Regulatory Structure 37
Fiscal Regime 38
Table: Chad - Upstream Tax Regime 38
Licensing Regime 39
Table: Chad - Contracts And Licensing Regime 39
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 39
Table: Oil Refineries In Chad 39
Table: Oil Pipelines In Chad 40
Competitive Landscape 41
Company Profile 43
ExxonMobil 43
Table: Key Assets 43
Table: Key Financials 44
Glencore 45
Table: Main Assets 45
Table: Key Financial Data 46
Regional Overview 47
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 47
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 56
Glossary 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Source 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 63
Table: Weighting 64

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Chad 2014-2020)
Table: Upstream Projects - Chad
Table: Oil Production (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Chad 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Chad 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Chad 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Chad 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Chad 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Chad 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (2019-2025)
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Chad - Upstream Tax Regime
Table: Chad - Contracts And Licensing Regime
Table: Oil Refineries In Chad
Table: Oil Pipelines In Chad
Table: Key Assets
Table: Key Financials
Table: Main Assets
Table: Key Financial Data
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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