Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date:23-Jan-2013
No. of pages: 123

The Central America coffee sector is set to see strong production in 2012/13 on the back of large plantings and better investment capacity. However, we believe low global prices could discourage production in the coming years, putting downside risks to the development of the sector in the medium term. The region is generally dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period. That said, the region is expected to remain self sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports, with the industry having potential to attract investment in over the medium term.

  • Coffee production growth to 2016/17:

    24.1% to 16.2mn bags. As the region becomes more attractive to investors, we expect the coffee sector to see increased export opportunities. That said, there are major downside risks to this view, as the region will continue to be exposed to security risks, disease outbreaks and adverse weather patterns.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2016/17:

    11.1% to 6.8mn tonnes. Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs.

  • Sugar production growth to 2016/17:

    11.3% to 5.0mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2016/17, and development of the export industry could present upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.

  • 2013 real GDP growth:

    4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). Down from 4.5% in 2012 and predicted to average 4.1% over 2012-2017.

  • Consumer price inflation:

    5.2% y-o-y in 2013. Up from 4.8% in 2012 and predicted to average 5.1 %over 2012-2017.

Industry Outlook

Over the long term, we could see consolidation in the coffee industry and private investment help to close the gap between Central America and the rest of South America. Indeed, yield growth in other major producers in South America will eventually reach its limit, while land constraints will restrict plantings. As a result, investors could turn towards more frontier markets with higher risk but potential for higher returns, especially as we are positive about the domestic consumer story in Central America. Panama has agreed a free trade agreement with the US, granting the North American country free access to export high quality beef cuts. For all other beef muscle cuts, Panama’s import duties fall from 30% to zero, and beef variety meat sees duties fall from 15% to zero. Pork duties have been eliminated, too, and a duty-free tariff quota begins at 1,600 tonnes. We believe this could discourage production in the Central American country, as local producers would very likely not be competitive enough to face increasing imports from the US. Our view for the continued expansion of sugar production in the region over the forecast period is linked to our view that sugar prices have bottomed. Even though we do not see prices coming back to their previous peaks, some more upside in the short term – especially during the planting season – and still-elevated prices by historical standards will be sufficient to boost production incentives in the region. Central American farmers tend to be more reliant on global prices than large sugar conglomerates in Brazil.

Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness SWOT Analysis 9
Industry Forecast 11
Central America Livestock Outlook 11
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 13
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 13
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 13
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 16
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 16
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 16
Central America Sugar Outlook 18
Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 19
Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 21
Central America Coffee Outlook 22
Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 23
Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 27
Central America Grains Outlook 29
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 30
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 32
Commodities Price Analysis 34
Monthly Grains Strategy 34
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts 42
Monthly Softs Strategy 42
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy 53
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts 54
Upstream Analysis 55
Americas Machinery Outlook 55
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 60
Americas GM Outlook 65
Downstream Analysis 71
Industry Forecast - Food 71
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017 72
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017 72
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017 73
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017 73
Table: El Salvador - Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2010-2017 74
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 76
Table: El Salvador- Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 77
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 78
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 79
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 80
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 81
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 82
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 83
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017 84
Industry Forecast - Drink 86
Table: Guatemala - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017 87
Table: Costa Rica - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017 87
Table: El Salvador - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017 88
Table: Honduras - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017 88
Table: Guatemala - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017 89
Table: Costa Rica - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017 89
Table: El Salvador - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017 89
Table: Honduras - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017 90
Table: Guatemala - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017 91
Table: Costa Rica - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017 91
Table: El Salvador - Soft Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017 91
Table: Honduras - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017 92
Industry Forecast - Mass Grocery Retail 92
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, % 93
Table: Guatemala - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017 93
Table: Costa Rica - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017 93
Table: El Salvador - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017 94
Table: Honduras - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017 94
Table: Guatemala - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 96
Table: Costa Rica - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 96
Table: El Salvador - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 96
Table: Honduras - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 97
Demographic Forecast 98
Belize 98
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 99
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 99
Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 100
Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 101
Costa Rica 101
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 102
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 103
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 104
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 104
El Salvador 104
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 106
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 106
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 107
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 107
Guatemala 108
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 109
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 109
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 110
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 111
Honduras 111
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 112
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 113
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 114
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 114
Nicaragua 114
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 116
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 116
Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 117
Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 117
Panama 117
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 119
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 119
Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 120
Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 120
Methodology 121
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 121

List of Tables

Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador- Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
Table: Guatemala - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Costa Rica - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Honduras - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Guatemala - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Costa Rica - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Honduras - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Guatemala - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Costa Rica - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Soft Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Honduras - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format,
Table: Guatemala - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Costa Rica - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Honduras - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
Table: Guatemala - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Costa Rica - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: El Salvador - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Honduras - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

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