Caribbean Tourism Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 45

BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will increase 4.5% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor

numbers from Europe and North America. Puerto Rico, Cuba, Bonaire and Guyana are expecting the

highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets except Belize will experience growth. However, the

outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.

We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 4.5% in 2016, to 42.3mn, reflecting a slight

moderation from growth of 5.2% in 2015. We expect Puerto Rico, Cuba, Bonaire and Guyana to post the

highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 5.5-6%, but we note the positive sign that all Caribbean

countries except Belize will experience arrivals growth in 2016 for the first time since the downturn.

However, we note that the UK vote by referendum in June 2016 to leave the EU could have negative

consequences for some Caribbean islands that are particularly dependent on UK tourists. Although it is

unclear what form the UK's departure will take, the vote is likely to lead to an economic slowdown in the

UK and has already sparked sterling depreciation. UK tourists may be deterred from visiting the relatively

expensive Caribbean, at least until the initial economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit has subsided.

Key Updates And Forecasts

- We have raised our forecast for tourism arrivals growth to the Caribbean to 4.5%, from 2.5%, reflecting

improving prospects in Cuba in particular.

- We expect Puerto Rico arrivals to grow by an impressive 9.1% in 2016, despite the ongoing debt

struggles in the commonwealth territory.

Caribbean Tourism Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Regional Forecast 9
Table: Caribbean Inbound Tourism, 2012-2020 11
Table: Caribbean Country-By-Country Breakdown Of Arrivals, Excluding Cruise, 2014-2020 12
Table: Caribbean Arrivals By Method & Region, 2012-2020 15
Table: Caribbean Transport & Travel Receipts, 2012-2020 17
Table: Caribbean Hotel Accommodation, 2012-2020 19
Table: Caribbean Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2012-2020 20
Country-Specific Forecasts 21
The Bahamas 21
Table: Bahamas Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 21
The Dominican Republic 21
Table: Dominican Republic Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 22
Jamaica 23
Table: Jamaica Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 24
Cuba 24
Table: Cuba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 26
The Cayman Islands 26
Table: Cayman Islands Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 27
Puerto Rico 27
Table: Puerto Rico Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 28
Barbados 28
Table: Barbados Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020 29
St Lucia 29
Table: St Lucia Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019 30
Trinidad & Tobago 30
Dutch Caribbean 31
Industry Risk/Reward Index 32
Tourism Risk/Reward Index 32
Table: Caribbean - Tourism Risk/Reward Index 32
Rewards 33
Risks 34
Market Overview 35
Competitive Landscape 39
Domestic Hotel Groups 39
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups 39
International Hotel Groups 40
Table: International Hotel Groups 40
Methodology 42
Industry Forecast Methodology 42
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 43
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 45

List of Tables

Table: Caribbean Inbound Tourism, 2012-2020
Table: Caribbean Country-By-Country Breakdown Of Arrivals, Excluding Cruise, 2014-2020
Table: Caribbean Arrivals By Method & Region, 2012-2020
Table: Caribbean Transport & Travel Receipts, 2012-2020
Table: Caribbean Hotel Accommodation, 2012-2020
Table: Caribbean Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2012-2020
Table: Bahamas Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Table: Dominican Republic Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Table: Jamaica Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Table: Cuba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Table: Cayman Islands Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Table: Puerto Rico Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Table: Barbados Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Table: St Lucia Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019
Table: Caribbean - Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups
Table: International Hotel Groups
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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