Canada Mining Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Oct-2012
No. of pages: 68

Slower But Steady Growth Ahead
Canada’s mining sector will remain one of the steadiest growth stories in the Americas region thanks to
diversified mineral deposits and a steady pipeline of investment. Canada mineral production is
diversified across base and precious metals as well as industrial minerals. The country is a top ten global
producer of zinc, lead, iron ore, nickel, copper, gold, silver, uranium and potash. With many companies
both headquartered and producing in Canada, the mining sector is crucial to the Canadian economy. Thus,
we expect Canada’s political leadership to maintain favourable tax and regulatory policies for the sector.
However, weak US growth, eurozone troubles, and slowing, less commodity-intensive growth in
China, will lead to slow, albeit stable growth in the Canadian mining sector.
We have revised our forecast downward for Canada’s mining industry value from US$US33.8bn to
US$29bn in 2017 on the back of our outlook for weak Chinese and developed world growth. Though
global demand growth is likely to remain slow and global production capacity is at an all time high,
particularly for base metals, decreasing ore quality and rising costs among major mineral exporters should
encourage new exploration across Canada’s untapped resources. While Canada is less cost competitive on
a per-unit-of-output basis compared to some developing-world exporters, its technological, infrastructure,
and governance advantages makes it an attractive investment destination. Therefore, we forecast average
annual industry growth of 3.1% between 2012 and 2017 as Canada’s stable business environment attracts
consistent investment.
Canada’s well developed capital markets allow firms to access funding beyond traditional credit channels,
though equity financing has slowed. Canadian firms also led M&A activity in the first half of 2012, with
junior gold miners particularly engaged in deal making. Tax and royalty policies also remain favourable
for mining firms. Canada maintains a dual-tiered regulatory system, comprising both provincial and
federal stakeholders, and project approval can sometimes take upwards of several years. However,
Canada’s federal authorities have expressed interest in reforming and streamlining the system to prevent
one project from needing multiple government approvals.

Canada Mining Report Q1 2013

BMI Industry View .... 5
SWOT Analysis .... 7
Canada Mining Sector SWOT 7
Canada Economic SWOT . 8
Global Mining Outlook .. 9
Table: Recent Tax Increases .. 9
Americas Mining Sector Outlook .... 16
Table: Key Central America & Caribbean Mining Projects .. 18
Market Overview 19
Mineral Sector Investment To Continue Despite Slowing Global Growth .. 19
Table: Canada - Mineral Production, 2011 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) .. 21
Table: Canada - Mining Industry Value & Production .... 21
Industry Forecasts . 22
Nickel: Modest Growth Ahead .. 22
Table: Select Operational &Planned Nickel Projects .. 24
Table: Canada - Nickel Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 24
Iron Ore: Strong Investment Outlook For Canada . 25
Table: Canada - Current Iron Ore Projects . 26
Table: Canada - Iron Ore Production (mn tonnes, unless stated otherwise) ... 27
Zinc: Growth To Remain Mired In Negative Territory 27
Table: Canada - Zinc Production .. 30
Gold: Exploration And Output To Remain Strong .. 30
Table: Major Gold Projects . 31
Table: Canada - Gold Production (mn ounces, unless stated otherwise) ... 32
Regulatory Development .. 33
Table: Canada - Government Policies .... 33
Americas Business Environment Ratings .... 35
Table: Americas Mining Risk/Reward Ratings .. 36
Competitive Landscape ... 39
Company Profiles ... 41
Rio Tinto 41
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Financial Data ... 44
Teck Resources 45
Table: Teck Resources - Financial Data . 47
Walter Energy .. 48
Table: Walter Energy - Key Financial Data 50
Metals Commodity Price Forecasts .... 51
Aluminium: Support At US$1,800/tonne Likely To Hold .. 52
Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak .. 54
Iron Ore: Don't Bet On A Sustainable Recovery 56
Lead: Potential For Short-Term Rally 58
Nickel: No Turnaround Coming 59
Steel: More Pain Ahead .. 60
Tin To Outperform 61
Zinc: Little Room For Optimism .... 63
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts . 64
Business Environment Ratings Methodology... 65
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators .... 66
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 67Table: Recent Tax Increases
Table: Key Central America & Caribbean Mining Projects
Table: Canada - Mineral Production, (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Canada - Mining Industry Value & Production
Table: Select Operational &Planned Nickel Projects
Table: Canada - Nickel Production (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Canada - Current Iron Ore Projects
Table: Canada - Iron Ore Production (mn tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Canada - Zinc Production
Table: Major Gold Projects
Table: Canada - Gold Production (mn ounces, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Canada - Government Policies
Table: Americas Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Financial Data
Table: Teck Resources - Financial Data
Table: Walter Energy - Key Financial Data
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components

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