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BMI View: Canadian IT spending is expected to reach US$45.2bn in 2012, up 1%, with BMI
downwardly revising its forecast due to expectations of a macroeconomic cooling in H212. BMI expects
Canada's IT market to remain in overall positive growth territory, although much will depend on the
business environment. Government spending will continue to be constrained by a focus on cutting costs,
with cost reviews being conducted by Toronto and Ontario, but there have been a spate of large tenders,
highlighting continued opportunities within the sector. Meanwhile, there will be opportunities as the
government seeks to foster the development of a marketplace for cloud services.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: US$15.3bn in 2011 to US$15.3bn in 2012, +0% in US dollar terms.
Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, after Canadian PC
sales reported positive growth in 2011.
Software Sales: US$8.8bn in 2011 to US$9.0bn in 2012, +2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar
terms downwardly revised due to analyst modification and, given the large public sector deficits, vendors
will need to provide clients with ways to reduce costs by increasing efficiency.
IT Services Sales: US$20.6bn in 2011 to US$20.9bn in 2012, +2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US
dollar terms downwardly revised due to analyst modification, with the market shaped by a continued
move towards distributed computing and service-oriented architectures.
Risk/Reward Ratings: Canada's score was 70.7 out of 100.0. Canada ranks second in our latest RRR
table, behind the US, but still ahead of Latin American leaders such as Brazil and Mexico. The country
ranked third for its industry rewards score, but its overall rating was boosted by a relatively high country
rewards score of 90.
Key Trends & Developments.
The federal government has stepped up its efforts to expand its use of cloud-based services.
Government entities at all levels are expected to be a growing market for cloud computing
services as small towns and cities strive to cut costs and raise efficiency. In 2012, the
government has launched a new brokerage system, designed to create an open marketplace
where government agencies can procure cloud services. As of mid-2012, two of Ottawa's highest
profile departments - Service Canada, which supervises federal benefits including Social
Insurance, and the Canada Revenue Agency - are using cloud services.
Fiscal constraints faced by the Ontario government in particular represent a challenging
environment for vendors. Meanwhile, Toronto authorities have also launched a Core Spending
Review targeted, which could have negative implications for IT spending. However, a focus, by
Ontario and other authorities, on deficit reduction through public services delivery reforms
should also potentially represent an opportunity for IT vendors.
Growing interest in cloud computing is expected, with Canada currently lagging the US and
some other advanced markets. The market in Canada remains fairly small. A 2011 survey
commissioned by Microsoft Canada found that nearly 73% of Canadian small and mediumsized
enterprises (SMEs) understood that cloud-based services were a cost-effective delivery
model, but that just 30% were investing in such services.