Cameroon Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 35

BMI View: Cameroon's construction industry will record strong growth throughout our forecast period as

the government directs substantial expenditure towards tackling its infrastructure deficit and foreign direct

investment flows into the market. Upgrades to transport and power infrastructure will be the key drivers of

growth during this period as Cameroon works to improve the overall ease of doing business in the country.

Posing a downside risk to our outlook are potential threats to political stability, which could see investors

becoming more cautious when operating in the market.

Forecast & Industry Developments

? We are maintaining our forecast for 9.4% real growth in 2016. The market will record robust growth over

the first half of our forecast period between 2016 and 2025, expanding at an annual average of 8.8% in

real terms and making it the second-fastest growing infrastructure market in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

after Ethiopia.

? Over our full 10-year forecast period up to 2020 we project industry growth to average 8% in real terms.

Nominal industry value is expected to rise from an estimated USD1.9bn in 2015 to USD6.1bn in 2025,

keeping Cameroon as one of the smaller infrastructure markets in West Africa.

? Cameroon boasts one of the more developed public-private partnership frameworks in SSA and continues

to draw in foreign direct investment from a range of international firms, most notably from France, Italy

and China.

? Improvements to overall logistics will provide the largest boost to growth, particularly efforts to harness

the country's hydropower potential and work under way at the new USD850mn Kribi Port. Increased

activity in the non-residential sector is also supporting our positive outlook, with Cameroon's hosting of

the Africa Cup of Nations in 2019 providing opportunities in commercial construction.

? Political risk presents a downside risk to our forecast and is a chief deterrent to operating in the market.

Concern stems from the political vacuum that would be left in the wake of incumbent president Paul

Biya's unplanned departure from office and the growing presence of Nigeria terrorist group Boko Haram

in the country.

Cameroon Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Five-Year Forecast Scenario (Cameroon 2016-2020) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Cameroon 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 9
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (Cameroon 2016-2025) 9
Table: Cameroon - Major Power Projects By Value (USDmn) 13
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 17
Cameroon - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 17
Rewards 17
Risks 17
SSA Infrastructure RRI: Volatile Markets Highlight Regional Risks 19
Table: SSA RRI 27
Methodology 28
Industry Forecast Methodology 28
Sector-Specific Methodology 29
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 33
Sector-Specific Methodology 34
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 34
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 35

List of Tables

Table: Five-Year Forecast Scenario (Cameroon 2016-2020)
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Cameroon 2016)
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (Cameroon 2016-2025)
Table: Cameroon - Major Power Projects By Value (USDmn)
Table: SSA RRI
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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