Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 91

BMI View: We have made some forecast revisions to Myanmar this quarter as the growth in H116

outpaced our initial expectations. Furthermore, Viettel has reportedly been chosen by the government as

the foreign partner for Myanmar's fourth and final mobile operator, to be licensed by end-2016. Through a

joint venture model, Viettel can replicate its tried-and-tested developing market strategy. However, the new

operator's challenges include the slowing organic mobile subscriber growth, ongoing price competition and

corporate governance. Meanwhile Cambodia's mobile market has experienced significant growth in the last

few years, but the momentum has come at the cost of one of the lowest ARPU levels in the Asia Pacific

region. The lack of growth opportunities, coupled with intense price competition and a crowded market, has

seen prominent companies exit the market. In Laos, low-value prepaid mobile services predominate, and

customers have little incentive to upgrade to higher-value products. This makes it difficult for operators to

generate a meaningful return on investment in networks and spectrum.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

? Although mobile services in Myanmar are being extended to rural parts of the country, the

emphasis is on prepaid services and this is putting downward pressure on ARPUs. The replacement

of 2G networks with 3G/4G platforms will be the main development trend through to 2020 and beyond.

? Mobile subscriber growth in Cambodia and Laos has been negatively affected by operator consolidation

in the former and the purging of inactive SIMs in the latter. Price competition undermines the value

of 3G networks.

? In all three markets mobile substitution acts as a disincentive for investment in wireline voice and

broadband. xDSL is the primary delivery platform as fibre is too expensive. We do not expect wireline

broadband to become a mass-market phenomenon in any of these three markets in the medium to long

term.

Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Cambodia 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (2013-2020) 14
Laos 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Laos 2013-2020) 19
Myanmar 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (2013-2020) 23
Industry Risk/Reward Index 24
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index 24
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416 26
Market Overview 28
Cambodia 28
Market Drivers & Trends 28
Mobile 28
Wireline Voice & Broadband 32
Laos 37
Market Drivers & Trends 37
Mobile 37
Table: Mobile Market Landscape: Subscribers ('000) & Shares (%), Q1 2016 39
Wireline Voice & Broadband 41
Table: Laos Internet Subscribers (2014) 43
Myanmar 44
Market Drivers & Trends 44
Mobile 44
Wireline Voice & Broadband 49
Regulatory Development 52
Regulatory Overview 52
Industry Risks 52
Main Development: Myanmar Prepares For Fourth Operator 54
Additional Developments 55
Cambodia & Laos Spectrum: No Major Changes Ahead 56
Competitive Landscape 58
Table: Key Players - Cambodia Telecoms Sector 58
Table: Key Players - Myanmar Telecoms Sector 58
Table: Key Players - Laos Telecoms Sector 59
Select Market Overviews 59
Table: Cambodia Market Overview (2014-2016) 59
Table: Myanmar Market Overview (2014-2016) 60
Table: Laos Market Overview (2014-2016) 60
Company Profiles 61
Lao Telecommunications 61
Mobitel 64
Telecom Cambodia 67
Demographic Forecast 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Cambodia 1990-2025) 71
Table: Key Population Ratios (Cambodia 1990-2025) 71
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Cambodia 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group (Cambodia 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group % (Cambodia 1990-2025) 73
Demographic Forecast 75
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Laos 1990-2025) 76
Table: Key Population Ratios (Laos 1990-2025) 76
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Laos 1990-2025) 77
Table: Population By Age Group (Laos 1990-2025) 77
Table: Population By Age Group % (Laos 1990-2025) 78
Demographic Forecast 80
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Myanmar 1990-2025) 81
Table: Key Population Ratios (Myanmar 1990-2025) 81
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Myanmar 1990-2025) 82
Table: Population By Age Group (Myanmar 1990-2025) 82
Table: Population By Age Group % (Myanmar 1990-2025) 83
Glossary 85
Table: Glossary Of Terms 85
Methodology 87
Industry Forecast Methodology 87
Sources 89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 89
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 91

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (2013-2020)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Laos 2013-2020)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (2013-2020)
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416
Table: Mobile Market Landscape: Subscribers ('000) & Shares (%), Q1 2016
Table: Laos Internet Subscribers (2014)
Table: Key Players - Cambodia Telecoms Sector
Table: Key Players - Myanmar Telecoms Sector
Table: Key Players - Laos Telecoms Sector
Table: Cambodia Market Overview (2014-2016)
Table: Myanmar Market Overview (2014-2016)
Table: Laos Market Overview (2014-2016)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Cambodia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Cambodia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Cambodia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Cambodia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Cambodia 1990-2025)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Laos 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Laos 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Laos 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Laos 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Laos 1990-2025)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Myanmar 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Myanmar 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Myanmar 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Myanmar 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Myanmar 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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