Cambodia and Laos Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 46

BMI View: The major players in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result

that huge capacity expansion has been expected from 2015, as hydro-, gas- and coal-based schemes have

been introduced. This should leave the country with plentiful spare generation. Neighbouring Vietnam,

which will finance a number of power projects, plans to make good use of Cambodia's potential export

capability, as does Thailand if a major coal-fired scheme comes to fruition.

Hydropower expansion is already under way in Cambodia and there is a long queue of potential projects

with strong regional backing. Several are set to proceed, with a surge in hydro-based power due from about

2016. Domestic gas resources could contribute additional capacity, while the use of renewables is set to rise

rapidly, albeit from a low base. Coal-fired stations are also in the planning stages, with Cambodia open to

the long-term possibility of nuclear energy.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? BMI estimates Cambodian power generation in 2016 at 4.4TWh, up 5.9% on the previous year. Overall

thermal generation is estimated to rise by 1.7% in 2016, an acceleration from a contraction of 4.6% in

2015, reflecting the expansion of oil-fired supply, as gas and coal are not yet part of the power mix.

? BMI forecast average annual real GDP growth of around 6.6% between 2016 and 2025. The population

is expected to rise from the current level of 15.8mn to 17.9mn during the same period. We estimate that

net power consumption will increase from 4.5TWh in 2016 to 9.2TWh by 2025. During our forecast

period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is estimated at 8.4%.

Cambodia and Laos Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Cambodia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Cambodia Snapshot 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Cambodia 2015-2019) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Cambodia 2020-2025) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 9
Cambodia Power Forecast Scenario 10
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 10
Oil Generation And Capacity Forecast 11
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019) 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025) 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019) 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025) 15
Electricity Consumption 16
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025) 17
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 17
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025) 19
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025) 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index 20
Asia Power Risk Reward Index 20
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100) 26
Cambodia Power Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Risks 27
Market Overview 28
Key Policies And Market Structure 28
Regulation And Competition 28
Pricing 30
Cambodia Power Projects Database 30
Table: Cambodia Major Projects - Power 30
Competitive Landscape 32
Regional Overview 34
Asia (Region) - Coal To Dominate, But Contribution To Slip 34
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast 38
Glossary 40
Table: Glossary Of Terms 40
Methodology 41
Methodology And Sources 41
Industry Forecast Methodology 41
Sources 44
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 44
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 45
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 46

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Cambodia 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Cambodia 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Cambodia 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Cambodia 2020-2025)
Table: Power RRI By Country (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: Cambodia Major Projects - Power
Table: Bmi's Japan Korea Marker Forecast
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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