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BMI View: The major players in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result
that huge capacity expansion has been expected from 2015, as hydro-, gas- and coal-based schemes have
been introduced. This should leave the country with plentiful spare generation. Neighbouring Vietnam,
which will finance a number of power projects, plans to make good use of Cambodia's potential export
capability, as does Thailand if a major coal-fired scheme comes to fruition.
Hydropower expansion is already under way in Cambodia and there is a long queue of potential projects
with strong regional backing. Several are set to proceed, with a surge in hydro-based power due from about
2016. Domestic gas resources could contribute additional capacity, while the use of renewables is set to rise
rapidly, albeit from a low base. Coal-fired stations are also in the planning stages, with Cambodia open to
the long-term possibility of nuclear energy.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? BMI estimates Cambodian power generation in 2016 at 4.4TWh, up 5.9% on the previous year. Overall
thermal generation is estimated to rise by 1.7% in 2016, an acceleration from a contraction of 4.6% in
2015, reflecting the expansion of oil-fired supply, as gas and coal are not yet part of the power mix.
? BMI forecast average annual real GDP growth of around 6.6% between 2016 and 2025. The population
is expected to rise from the current level of 15.8mn to 17.9mn during the same period. We estimate that
net power consumption will increase from 4.5TWh in 2016 to 9.2TWh by 2025. During our forecast
period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is estimated at 8.4%.