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BMI View: Bulgaria's retail market remains relatively fragmented, held back by a small and ageing
population and low incomes. However, high levels of urbanisation have provided opportunities for
international retailers and as disposable incomes grow over the medium term, Bulgarians' appetite for nonessential
goods will increase, providing opportunities for retailers across the spectrum.
Key Views And Developments
- Total household retail spending in Bulgaria will fall slightly in 2016, by 0.01%, but over our five-year
forecast period to 2020 we see good growth, with spending rising from USD27.7bn in 2016 to
USD36.5bn by 2020.
- As households become richer, the share of spending on non-essential products and services will rise.
Over our forecast period from 2016 to 2020 we see particular growth in the furnishing and home
segment, from 7.69% to 8.23% of total household retail spending, while recreation and culture will grow
from 8.15% to 8.59% and personal, insurance and other will grow from 5.77% to 6.08%.