Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 74

BMI View: The Bulgarian construction industry is expected to contract 1.7% y-o-y in 2016. Infrastructure

construction will be the largest market in the country's construction industry, expanding 2.8% y-o-y in 2016

and accounting for 59.0% of its total value. The development of the country's road and railway network

with the support of EU funds will continue. Tourism sector will remain a substantial growth driver, while

the limited demand and the scarcity of developments in the pipeline in the non-residential building sector

will drag downwards the entire residential and non-residential building industry as it is anticipated to

contribute about three quarters to the latter sector's total value this year.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Driven by transport infrastructure projects, we forecast Bulgaria's construction industry will grow by an

average of 1.6% over 2016-2025.

? Bulgaria remains highly dependent on EU funding for infrastructure projects, particularly in the transport

sector. As such, slow EU recovery will limit the speed of Bulgaria's transport infrastructure growth.

? Improved absorption of EU structural funding will be supported by public investment projects to a certain

extent.

? World Bank will provide loans worth EUR550mn to Bulgaria for the next six years in order to support

financial stability, strengthen electricity sector and improve energy efficiency.

? We do not expect investment in renewable energy infrastructure to increase given the Bulgarian

government decided to terminate incentives for new renewable energy capacity in March 2015.

? The outlook for the residential sector is not positive, especially from 2019 onwards. The housing market

remains weak following a collapse in prices since 2008 and the high levels of indebtedness will act as a

headwind to future investment.

Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Bulgaria Construction Industry Forecast 5
Table: Bulgaria Infrastructure Risk/Reward 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025) 9
Structural Trends 10
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 16
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025) 17
Table: Transport projects 29
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 30
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025) 31
Table: Energy & Utilities Projects 44
Residential/NonResidential Building - Outlook And Overview 45
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025) 45
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects 51
Industry Risk Reward Index 52
Bulgaria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 52
Rewards 52
Risks 52
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors 53
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 59
Market Overview 60
Competitive Landscape 60
Table: EQS Table 61
Company Profile 62
Glavbolgarstroy 62
Mott MacDonald 64
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sector-Specific Methodology 68
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 72
Sector-Specific Methodology 73
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 74

List of Tables

Table: Bulgaria Construction Industry Forecast
Table: Bulgaria Infrastructure Risk/Reward
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025)
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025)
Table: Transport projects
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025)
Table: Energy & Utilities Projects
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025)
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Table: EQS Table
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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