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BMI View: We have made some minor downwards revisions to our Brazilian mobile market forecast in the
Q416 report update. The revisions account for the negative growth in 2015 and H116. Furthermore, the
challenging macroeconomic environment and the uncertain political outlook cast a long shadow over all
sectors in Brazil, including telecommunications. Organic subscriber growth in the mobile sector will begin
to taper off and 3G/4G adoption rates remain high, according to latest data from H116. We maintain that
technological adoption will drive the mobile market forward. Nevertheless, ambitious national broadband
expansion initiatives, plans to abolish the legacy geographic wireline concessions system and the auction of
mobile broadband spectrum all depend on political continuity, which hangs in the balance following the
removal of President Roussef in Q316.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
- Some 23mn mobile users were shed in 2015 and 4.4mn in H116, as operators disconnected inactive
SIM cards. More accurate data will enable operators to plan service and network upgrades more
effectively and lower operating costs. 3G/4G migration will be a growth driver through to 2020, by
which time there will be over 221mn 3G/4G subscribers in the market.