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BMI View: Brazil is in the midst of the largest economic and political crisis in more than a decade. This is
having an adverse impact on household incomes and consumer confidence. While a gradual recovery is
expected to start in 2017, a weak labour market, elevated inflation and reduced access to consumer credit
will continue weighing on the country's retail sector over the near term. As such, we expect consumer
spending to remain concentrated on essential goods and services, with the preferences geared towards
lower-range product categories across the board.
Key Views & Developments
? In USD terms, headline household spending is forecast to decline by 23.7% in 2016, negatively affected
by the depreciation of Brazilian real against the US dollar as well as the protracted economic recession in
the country. In local currency, terms total household spending is expected to register 5.3% growth during
2016. We forecast total household spending to rebound during 2017-2020, expanding by an annual
average 8.3% in USD terms.
? We expect transport and food & non-alcoholic drinks to remain the two largest spending categories,
accounting for 20.1% and 17.4% of the total expenditure respectively in 2020.