Brazil Retail Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 64

BMI View: Brazil is in the midst of the largest economic and political crisis in more than a decade. This is

having an adverse impact on household incomes and consumer confidence. While a gradual recovery is

expected to start in 2017, a weak labour market, elevated inflation and reduced access to consumer credit

will continue weighing on the country's retail sector over the near term. As such, we expect consumer

spending to remain concentrated on essential goods and services, with the preferences geared towards

lower-range product categories across the board.

Key Views & Developments

? In USD terms, headline household spending is forecast to decline by 23.7% in 2016, negatively affected

by the depreciation of Brazilian real against the US dollar as well as the protracted economic recession in

the country. In local currency, terms total household spending is expected to register 5.3% growth during

2016. We forecast total household spending to rebound during 2017-2020, expanding by an annual

average 8.3% in USD terms.

? We expect transport and food & non-alcoholic drinks to remain the two largest spending categories,

accounting for 20.1% and 17.4% of the total expenditure respectively in 2020.

Brazil Retail Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Brazil 2013-2020) 15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Brazil 2013-2020) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink And Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 21
Clothing And Footwear 21
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 22
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 23
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Brazil 2013-2020) 24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Brazil 2013-2020) 26
Table: Labour Market Data (Brazil 2013-2020) 29
Demographic Forecast 30
Table: Total Population (Brazil 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Babies (Brazil 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young Children (Brazil 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Children (Brazil 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Brazil 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Young People (Brazil 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Brazil 2013-2020) 35
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Brazil 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Young Adults (Brazil 2013-2020) 36
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Brazil 2013-2020) 37
Table: Population: Urban (Brazil 2013-2020) 37
Industry Risk/Reward Index 38
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416 38
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Market Overview 41
Latest Updates 41
Competitive Landscape 47
Clothing And Footwear 47
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers 47
Household Goods 48
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers 48
Electronics 49
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 49
Department Stores 49
Table: Selected Department Stores 49
E-Commerce 50
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers 50
Pharmacies 50
Table: Selected Pharmacies/ Drugstores 50
Glossary 51
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

List of Tables

Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Household Goods Spending (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Personal Care Spending (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Household Income Data (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Labour Market Data (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Total Population (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Babies (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Children (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Children (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young People (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Urban (Brazil 2013-2020)
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
Table: Selected Department Stores
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers
Table: Selected Pharmacies/ Drugstores
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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