Brazil Renewables Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 47

BMI View: Although the economic recession continues to affect the Brazilian non-hydroelectric renewable

market in 2016 as the currency devaluation threatens multiple solar projects, reaffirmed government

support and a return to positive growth in 2017 provide some upside to our outlook. The re-scheduling of

the two reserve auctions to September and December in hope for an improved investment this year could

reinforce the already strong project pipeline, whose major obstacles remain to be financial, as well as

relate to an insufficient production chain in light of local content requirements. We currently see non-hydro

capacity to grow by 9.5% in 2016, and 4.2% by 2017.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- For 2016, we expect overall non-hydro renewables to see a year-on-year capacity and generation growth

of 10.7% and 16.7%, respectively. While capacity growth is significantly below 2015-levels, generation

is increasing from last year's strong growth and the slump in domestic energy consumption levels as the

wider economic downturn continues. For 2017, capacity and generation growth are forecast to fall to

9.5% and 7.6%, respectively.

• Due to the political turmoil and economic uncertainty surrounding the impeachment of President

Rousseff, auctions have been rescheduled. The first reserve energy auction, originally scheduled for late

July, has been postponed until September 23. The second reserve auction initially planned for October 28

has been rescheduled to December 16. Also, the most recent power transmission auction, originally

scheduled for September 2, 2016, has been postponed; the government had expected to attract

investments of up to BRL12.6bn (USD4bn), but the Energy Ministry decided to review the terms of the

auction to ensure interest from investors.

- Wind capacity forecasts for 2016 and 2017 have been readjusted to include more projects entering the

market by the end of 2016, rather than 2017. Solar capacity growth remains at an unchanged, lower level,

due to currency pressures and delayed auctions.

Brazil Renewables Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Brazil Renewables Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: Evolution Of Installed Capacity For Electricity Generation By Source, GW, 2014 And 2024 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 26
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 29
Brazil Renewables Projects Database 30
Industry Risk/Reward Index 31
Brazil Renewables Risk/Reward Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 31
Market Overview 33
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure 33
Targets 33
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, 2014 and 2024, in GW 34
Subsidies 34
Infrastructure 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Eletrobrás 39
Tractebel Energia 39
Vestas Wind Systems A/S 40
Acciona 40
Impsa 40
Glossary 41
Table: Glossary Of Terms 41
Methodology 42
Methodology And Sources 42
Industry Forecast Methodology 42
Sources 44
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 44
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 46
Table: Weighting Indicators 47

List of Tables

Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021)
Table: Evolution Of Installed Capacity For Electricity Generation By Source, GW, 2014 And 2024
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Evolution of installed capacity for electricity generation by source, 2014 and 2024, in GW
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators
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