Brazil Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 73

BMI View:, With the economy returning to growth in 2017 and the government committed to attracting

investment in the power and renewables sectors, the Brazilian electricity market will offer opportunities to

project developers and power sector investors. Wind, solar and natural gas will present the biggest

potential to international investors, but we see opportunities also in power transmission and distribution via

public tenders and the acquisition of local distribution companies. That said, weak power consumption and

delays in project implementation due to high financing and import costs will remain pertinent issues over

the coming quarters.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The constrained financing environment and currency slump that characterized Brazil's economic

recession in 2015-2016 are having an impact on the growth outlook of the country's power sector. In

August it was reported that the Brazilian government is likely to cancel the 2016 A-3 auction for new

power projects, after delaying a reserve auction for wind and solar to December. Moreover, it is

reportedly considering cancelling power purchase agreements for some solar and natural gas projects

contracted in 2014-2015 that are unlikely to be developed under current macroeconomic conditions, in

order to allow them to participate in future auctions.

- Despite current hurdles, we believe Brazil will offer opportunities for power project developers over the

coming quarters, particularly in the renewables sector. Due to the risk that contracted projects do not

come online as scheduled, the government is planning to hold a number of auctions in 2017 to secure

power supply over the next few years. The large number of solar and wind projects registered to compete

in the December auction indicates that investor appetite for the market is still significant.

Brazil Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Brazil Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Results For Gas-Fired Projects In Latest Power Auctions 14
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Table: Solar & Wind Capacity Registered And Contracted In Recent And Upcoming Auctions 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 27
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 30
Transmission & Distribution 30
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 33
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 34
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
LatAm Risk Reward Index (RRI): Macroeconomic Dynamics Weighing On Outlook 35
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Index 42
Rewards 42
Risks 43
Market Overview 44
Key Policies And Market Structure 44
Regulation And Competition 44
Sustainable Energy Policies 46
Pricing 46
Table: Tariff Surcharges Before And After Reduction 47
Brazil Power Projects Database 48
Competitive Landscape 51
Eletrobras 51
Engie 53
Company Profile 55
Eletrobrás 55
Regional Overview 60
LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 60
Table: BMI'S Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 63
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector 63
Glossary 67
Table: Glossary Of Terms 67
Methodology 68
Methodology And Sources 68
Industry Forecast Methodology 68
Sources 71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 71
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2015-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Results For Gas-Fired Projects In Latest Power Auctions
Table: Solar & Wind Capacity Registered And Contracted In Recent And Upcoming Auctions
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Tariff Surcharges Before And After Reduction
Table: BMI'S Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond
Table: New Opportunities In LatAm Power Transmission Sector
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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