Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 07-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 133

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term,

underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise over the

next decade. However, production growth will be limited by declining investment funds and continued

headwinds from the corruption scandal and ongoing political crisis. As such, we maintain a relatively

modest outlook, reflecting our view that the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to

the upstream and downstream segments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence,

and a burdensome regulatory environment.

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

? On August 11, national oil company (NOC) Petrobras reported a USD106mn profit in its Q216 results,

representing a 38% y-o-y decline. The fall was attributed to a weaker exchange rate, which increased

interest expenses, coupled with a rise in operational expenses. Petrobras will remain focused on

streamlining its operations, with a particular aim of boosting efficiencies at its most promising upstream

assets. Furthermore, the NOC will increasingly direct its efforts toward ensuring long-term production

growth, suggesting a reassessment of its heavily state-led approach.

? Petrobras also announced it would reduce its 2016 capex plan by USD2.5bn in an effort to reduce the size

of its USD124bn debt load. The company invested a reported USD7.4bn over H116 with nearly all

spending directed toward upstream projects. This compares to a total spend of USD12.2bn over H115.

Spending is expected to increase over H216, reaching a new targeted rate of USD18.5bn.

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Brazil - Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive) 34
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 34
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 35
Upstream Production - Gas 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 39
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 39
Refining 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Brazilian Refineries 42
Table: US Renewable Fuel Volumes 44
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 44
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 45
Refined Fuels Consumption 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends 45
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 48
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) 49
Gas Consumption 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 53
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) 53
Trade - Oil 54
Crude Trade Forecasts 54
Latest Updates 54
Structural Trends 54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2020) 56
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 57
Refined Fuels Forecasts 57
Latest Updates 57
Structural Trends 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 59
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 59
Latest Updates 59
Structural Trends 59
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 62
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 62
Industry Risk Reward Index 63
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 63
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 63
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings 64
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 65
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 66
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit 68
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 70
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index 71
Market Overview 74
Brazil Energy Market Overview 74
Overview/State Role 74
Licensing And Regulation 75
Licensing Rounds 76
International Energy Relations 80
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 82
Oil Refineries 82
Table: Brazil - Total Refining Capacity 82
Service Stations 86
Oil Terminals/Ports 87
Oil Pipelines 87
LNG Terminals 87
Gas Pipelines 88
Competitive Landscape 91
Table: Brazil - Total Crude Production By Company, 2015 91
Table: Brazil - Total Natural Gas Production By Company, 2015 92
Company Profile 93
Brazil -Petrobras: Above Ground Obstacles Will Hinder Growth Strategy 93
Table: Petrobras Areas Of Upstream Operations 98
Shell Brasil 101
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 102
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn 103
Repsol 104
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 105
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 105
Statoil do Brasil 107
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 108
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 108
Chevron Brasil 109
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 110
Table: Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 110
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo 111
Table: Table: Current Upstream Assets 112
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn 112
Regional Overview 113
Latin America Overview 113
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 124
Glossary 126
Table: Glossary Of Terms 126
Methodology 128
Industry Forecast Methodology 128
Source 130
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 130
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 132
Table: Weighting 133

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020)
Table: Brazil - Key Upstream Projects
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive)
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Brazilian Refineries
Table: US Renewable Fuel Volumes
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025)
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Brazil - Total Refining Capacity
Table: Brazil - Total Crude Production By Company, 2015
Table: Brazil - Total Natural Gas Production By Company, 2015
Table: Petrobras Areas Of Upstream Operations
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil
Table: Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn)
Table: Table: Current Upstream Assets
Table: Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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