Brazil Metals Report Q4 2012

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No. of pages: 56

Growth For Global Games, But Challenges Remain
Metal consumption growth in Brazil will be driven by the construction sector in the coming years as
infrastructure spending is ramped up. In particular, we highlight preparations to host the 2014 FIFA
World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. We forecast steel consumption growth of
1.0% in 2012, before a pickup in subsequent years. Annual growth should average 5.6% over the 2012-
2016 period, buoyed by healthy infrastructure spending. We forecast infrastructure industry value to grow
by an average of 6.8% over the same period.
Production growth will disappoint previous years’ ambitious expectations, as weak margins will continue
to force a rationalisation of the sector. This trend is illustrated by ThyssenKrupp, Germany’s biggest
steelmaker, considering wooing suitors for its loss-making steel mills in Brazil.
Turning to the aluminium sector, energy costs account for nearly 35% of total production costs in Brazil.
This is relatively high when compared with global standards. This has led to production declines over the
past few years and even talks of facility closures by the major aluminium producers in the country.
However, the Brazilian government is currently considering power sector reforms that should be able to
address these concerns.

Brazil Metals Report Q4 2012

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis .... 6
Brazil Business Environment SWOT 6
Industry Forecasts ... 7
Steel: Infrastructure Boost 7
Table: Brazil - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) .... 10
Table: Brazil - Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) .... 10
Aluminium: Government To Address Energy Woes 11
Table: Brazil - Aluminium Consumption & Production ... 14
Macroeconomic Outlook . 15
Downgrading Growth, Story Remains The Same .... 15
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity . 17
Regulatory Development .. 18
Commodities Forecast 19
Steel Price Forecast - Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013 .. 19
Table: Steel Forecast . 19
Table: Global Steel Forecasts ... 25
Commodity Strategy - Monthly Metals Update.. 25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts . 39
Competitive Landscape ... 40
Table: Brazilian Aluminium Smelters . 41
Company Profiles ... 43
Alcoa . 43
Financial Data . 46
Table: Alcoa - Financial Data . 46
ArcelorMittal ... 47
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data .. 50
Vale ... 51
Company Data . 54
Table: Vale - Financial Data ... 54
BMI Methodology ... 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 55Table: Brazil - Steel Production & Consumption (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Brazil - Steel Industry Historical Data (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Brazil - Aluminium Consumption & Production
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
Table: Steel Forecast
Table: Global Steel Forecasts
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Brazilian Aluminium Smelters
Table: Alcoa - Financial Data
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Table: Vale - Financial Data

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