Brazil Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Oct-2012
No. of pages: 74

BMI’s Brazil Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the current health and future prospects of
the country’s defence community, chiefly its armed forces and defence industry. So as to understand the
prospects and health of Brazil’s defence community, the report takes a multifaceted approach. It
examines the internal and external security challenges faced by the country, the modus operandi of
political defence decision-making, and how these decisions are transformed into military action. In
addition, it outlines the order of battle of the country’s armed forces, the respective sizes of the armed
forces, current defence procurement programmes and future anticipated acquisitions of military materiel.
Beyond this, the report also investigates Brazil’s growing defence industrial sector, particularly in the
realm of aerospace, and the impact that this defence industry could have in the domestic and international
The report makes several key findings. Firstly, it notes that the country has a long-term objective to
become a major player in the global defence industry; both in Latin America, and abroad. Secondly, it
notes that Brazil is playing an increasingly important role vis-à-vis security both domestically and across
the wider region. This includes its relationships with its neighbours and its participation in international
peacekeeping missions. Fourthly, the Brazilian defence establishment is wedded to a long-term
programme of defence modernisation. This is focused on the replacement of obsolete platforms and
capabilities with new domestically produced and imported equipment.
Long term, Brazil sees itself as a global player both in terms of defence materiel provision and in terms of
operational participation. This is a trend that is unlikely to change over the next decade.
Over the last quarter BMI has made some additions to the Brazil Defence & Security Report. These have
?? A detailed description of the chain of command of the Brazilian armed forces, and the country’s
grand strategy.
?? A full order of battle for the Brazilian army, air force and navy.
?? An update regarding the country’s defence budget for 2012.
?? A full description of the major procurement projects across the Brazilian army, air force and

Brazil Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis .... 6
Brazil Security SWOT .. 6
Brazil Defence Industry SWOT ... 7
Brazil Political SWOT . 8
Brazil Economic SWOT .... 9
Brazil Business Environment SWOT ... 10
Global Political Outlook ... 11
Latin America Security Overview ... 14
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s . 14
Security Risk Analysis 34
BMI's Regional Security Ratings ... 34
Table: Latin America Security Ratings .... 34
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings. 34
Brazil's Security Risk Ratings ... 35
Political Overview ... 37
Domestic Politics .. 37
Long-Term Political Outlook .... 39
Brazil Security Overview .. 43
Internal Security Situation ... 43
Amazon Basin .. 43
Gun Crime And Violence 44
Corruption .. 45
External Security Situation .. 45
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups . 45
Brazil-Colombia ... 46
Brazil-Paraguay ... 46
Armed Forces And Government Spending .. 47
Grand Strategy 47
Order of Battle . 47
Defence Modernisation ... 51
International Deployment and Joint Exercises .. 55
Table: Foreign Deployments .... 55
Market Overview 58
Industry Trends And Developments .... 59
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 61
Armed Forces .. 61
Table: Brazil's Armed Forces, 2001-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 61
Table: Brazil's Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017, (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 61
Table: Brazil's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 .... 62
Table: Brazil's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2010-2017 .. 63
Table: Brazil's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 64
Table: Brazil's Defence Imports, 2010-2017, (US$mn) .... 65
Table: Brazil's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017, (US$mn).... 65
Macroeconomic Outlook .. 66
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ... 68
Company Profiles ... 69
AVIBRAS Indústria Aerospacial SA .... 69
Embraer . 70
BMI Methodology ... 72
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 72
Defence Industry ... 72
Sources .. 73Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
Table: Foreign Deployments
Table: Brazil's Armed Forces, - (' personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Brazil's Manpower Available For Military Service, -, (aged -, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Brazil's Defence Expenditure, -
Table: Brazil's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), -
Table: Brazil's Defence Exports, - (US$mn)
Table: Brazil's Defence Imports, -, (US$mn)
Table: Brazil's Defence Trade Balance, -, (US$mn)
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity, -

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