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BMI View: Botswana's mining industry has considerable potential, with sizeable mineral deposits
complemented by a stable political climate and supportive regulatory environment.
Latest Updates & Forecasts
? In April 2016, UK-owned diamond exploring company Botswana Diamonds begun drilling at the PL260
and PL21 licences in the Orapa mining province. The company secured exploration rights for the area in
2015 as part of a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with Russian miner, Alrosa. In the same month, the company
announced its interim results for the six-month period ending December 31, 2015, reporting a net loss of
USD388,000. Botswana Diamonds chairman John Teeling attributed the loss to the current depression in
global diamond prices and a lack of investor interest in exploration companies.
? BMI's short-term outlook for Botswana's mining sector remains bearish, though we see production
recovering from 2017 as global diamond prices stabilise.
? We have raised our coal price forecasts due to a more aggressive contraction in global mine production
than we anticipated, predominately in China. We now forecast Newcastle coal to average USD53.0/tonne
in 2016 (previously USD51.0/tonne) and USD57.0/tonne in 2017 tonne (previously USD52.0/tonne)
(see: 'Thermal Coal: Upward Revision On Supply Curbs', June 23 2016).
? In March 2016, the CEO of state-owned Botswana Oil Company, Willie Mokgatlhe, said that the
company was exploring opportunities for coal beneficiation. The move would see the government start to
leverage the country's considerable coal reserves by converting them into liquid energy products.
? Although Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s coal production growth will remain positive, low coal prices will
reduce the sector's overall investment attractiveness, limiting new projects coming online. In 2016, SSA
will produce 270mn tonnes (mnt) of coal, accounting for 3.7% of global coal production. We expect
SSA's share to increase marginally to 3.8% by 2020 on the back of a number of new projects coming