Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 77

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key

development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the kingdom's centrepiece Sitra

refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a

widening of the country's fiscal deficit until 2020. This marks a two-year delay

to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2018. We also note downside risk to our

crude oil and gas production forecasts on the back of Mubadala and Occidental's withdrawal from the

Tatweer joint venture currently redeveloping the Bahrain field.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

- Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the

Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low

permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have

not yet included all volumes projected by the project.

- Redevelopment work at the Bahrain field could slow or stagnate altogether over the coming years. It was

reported in May 2016 that Mubadala Petroleum and Occidental Petroleum have agreed with

Nogaholding to pull out of the 20 year JV Tatweer Petroleum. We will wait to see whether the

government manages to find a replacement before deciding on how these changes will impact

redevelopment and exploration works at the field, and before changing our forecast as a result.

Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Bahrain - Key Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 15
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 15
Upstream Production - Gas 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 19
Refining 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 25
Refined Fuels Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Crude Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2020) 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 39
Industry Risk Reward Index 42
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 43
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 45
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index 48
Market Overview 50
Bahrain Energy Market Overview 50
Regulatory Structure 50
Fiscal Regime 51
Licensing Regime 51
Table: Bahrain Licensing Regime 51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 53
Oil Refineries 53
Table: Refineries In Bahrain 53
Oil Storage Facilities 54
Service Stations 54
Oil Pipelines 54
Gas Pipelines 54
LNG Terminals 55
Competitive Landscape 56
Competitive Landscape Summary 56
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil & Gas Sector 57
Table: Key Upstream Players 57
Table: Key Downstream Players 57
Company Profile 58
BAPCO 58
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Bahrain 59
Regional Overview 60
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview 60
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory 60
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand 63
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre) 63
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete 65
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas 66
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand 68
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade 69
Glossary 70
Table: Glossary Of Terms 70
Methodology 72
Industry Forecast Methodology 72
Source 74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 74
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 76
Table: Weighting 77

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020)
Table: Bahrain - Key Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Bahrain Licensing Regime
Table: Refineries In Bahrain
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Bahrain
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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