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BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the key
development for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the kingdom's centrepiece Sitra
refinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and a
widening of the country's fiscal deficit until 2020. This marks a two-year delay
to our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2018. We also note downside risk to our
crude oil and gas production forecasts on the back of Mubadala and Occidental's withdrawal from the
Tatweer joint venture currently redeveloping the Bahrain field.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:
- Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at the
Bahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the low
permeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We have
not yet included all volumes projected by the project.
- Redevelopment work at the Bahrain field could slow or stagnate altogether over the coming years. It was
reported in May 2016 that Mubadala Petroleum and Occidental Petroleum have agreed with
Nogaholding to pull out of the 20 year JV Tatweer Petroleum. We will wait to see whether the
government manages to find a replacement before deciding on how these changes will impact
redevelopment and exploration works at the field, and before changing our forecast as a result.