Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 79

BMI View: After stabilisation in 2016, we forecast renewed downside to Azeri oil production from 2017

driven by the country's maturing asset base and a lack of new output brought on stream. Condensates

production from the Shah Deniz Phase II will offer temporary upside in 2019, but this will be insufficient to

sustainably reverse the overall trend of decline. Our outlook on gas production is broadly bullish, with

substantial reserves under development and a strong prospective resource base. The refining sector will

continue to struggle, due to low complexity and ageing infrastructure and a continued lack of investment.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

? The country boasts substantial, prospective and underexplored acreage, in particular offshore in the South

Caspian basin. SOCAR has also announced plans to restart onshore exploration, targeting ultra-deep oil

deposits.

? A shortage of drilling rigs continues to delimit drilling activity in the Caspian Sea. A spate of exploration

and appraisal, development and production wells are set to be spud by 2017; SOCAR needs to secure

additional drilling rigs in the coming quarters if it is to avoid the emergence of a major bottleneck in its

upstream.

? Oil output decreased in 2015, according to reports by SOCAR. In part this stemmed from planned

maintenance works, but the bulk of the loss came from faster-than-expected depletion rates at the major

ACG fields. After a temporary stabilisation we expect this trend to continue in 2017, despite increased

gas reinjection boosting recovery.

? The gas sector is set for strong growth, driven in large part by development of the Shah Deniz II, which

reached FID in 2013 and is targeting first gas from 2018.

Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Oil Indexation In European Gas Contracts 21
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 22
Refining 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Crude Oil Trade 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Azerbaijan Crude Oil Assay 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 37
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 44
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 44
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 45
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 48
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 48
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 51
Azerbaijan - Risk/Reward Index 52
Upstream Index 52
Downstream Index 52
Market Overview 53
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview 53
Regulatory Structure 53
Licensing Regime 53
Fiscal Regime 53
Table: Azerbaijan PSC Main Fiscal Terms 54
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 55
Refineries 55
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Refineries 55
Oil Pipelines 55
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Pipelines 55
Gas Pipelines 55
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Pipelines 55
Oil Terminals & Ports 56
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Trade Facilities 56
Oil Storage Facilities 56
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Storage Facilities 56
Gas Storage Facilities 56
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Storage Facilities 56
Competitive Landscape 57
Competitive Landscape Summary 57
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 59
Table: Key Upstream Players 59
Table: Key Downstream Players 60
Company Profile 61
SOCAR 61
Latest Updates 61
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan 62
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 62
AIOC 63
Latest Updates 63
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan 64
Regional Overview 65
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 65
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 65
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 66
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 67
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 68
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 69
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 70
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 71
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Source 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 78
Table: Weighting 79

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2020)
Table: Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Table: Oil Indexation In European Gas Contracts
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Table: Azerbaijan Crude Oil Assay
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Azerbaijan PSC Main Fiscal Terms
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Refineries
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Pipelines
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Pipelines
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Trade Facilities
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Storage Facilities
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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