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BMI View: Australia is well on course to become the largest LNG exporter in the world as it awaits the
commencement of three new LNG projects over the next two to three years. The country will overtake Qatar
by 2019. The heavy volume of existing gas reserves tied to exports have driven up domestic gas prices and
increases risks of a supply shortage at home, though government plans to increase investment in gas
distribution infrastructure and make more supplies available for local consumption by accelerating onshore
developments provide cause for optimism.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
? In its H116 earnings, Santos booked an impairment charge of USD1.0bn on its Gladstone LNG project
due to slower-than-anticipated ramp-up in gas output and increase in the price of third-party gas
supplying the terminal.
? Australia is on course to overtake Qatar by 2019 to become the largest LNG exporter in the world. We
expect to see three new projects come online over the next two-three years, namely Chevron's
Wheatstone LNG, Inpex's Ichthys LNG and Shell's Prelude FLNG offshore Western Australia.
? While we see limited scope for large-scale refining capacity additions in the coming years, small-scale
projects targeting provincial fuel distribution opportunities will provide a small boost to total refining
capacity over the coming years. One such example is ExxonMobil's proposed expansion of its Altona
refinery in Victoria by 10,000b/d.
? Proposed reforms in the domestic gas sector at the August 2016 COAG Energy Council meeting could
see improvements made over subsequent years, including greater transparency over pricing, better gas
distribution infrastructure nationwide. State ministers also agreed to work on lifting the blanket ban on
fracking activities, with the exception of Victoria.