Australia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 90

BMI View: Australia is well on course to become the largest LNG exporter in the world as it awaits the

commencement of three new LNG projects over the next two to three years. The country will overtake Qatar

by 2019. The heavy volume of existing gas reserves tied to exports have driven up domestic gas prices and

increases risks of a supply shortage at home, though government plans to increase investment in gas

distribution infrastructure and make more supplies available for local consumption by accelerating onshore

developments provide cause for optimism.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

? In its H116 earnings, Santos booked an impairment charge of USD1.0bn on its Gladstone LNG project

due to slower-than-anticipated ramp-up in gas output and increase in the price of third-party gas

supplying the terminal.

? Australia is on course to overtake Qatar by 2019 to become the largest LNG exporter in the world. We

expect to see three new projects come online over the next two-three years, namely Chevron's

Wheatstone LNG, Inpex's Ichthys LNG and Shell's Prelude FLNG offshore Western Australia.

? While we see limited scope for large-scale refining capacity additions in the coming years, small-scale

projects targeting provincial fuel distribution opportunities will provide a small boost to total refining

capacity over the coming years. One such example is ExxonMobil's proposed expansion of its Altona

refinery in Victoria by 10,000b/d.

? Proposed reforms in the domestic gas sector at the August 2016 COAG Energy Council meeting could

see improvements made over subsequent years, including greater transparency over pricing, better gas

distribution infrastructure nationwide. State ministers also agreed to work on lifting the blanket ban on

fracking activities, with the exception of Victoria.

Australia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Australia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas 13
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Australia 2014-2019) 16
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Australia 2020-2025) 16
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Australia - Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2014-2019) 31
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2020-2025) 32
Upstream Production - Gas 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2020-2025) 35
Refining 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Australia 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Australia 2020-2025) 38
Refined Fuels Consumption 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2020-2025) 41
Gas Consumption 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2014-2019) 45
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2020-2025) 46
Trade - Oil 46
Crude Oil 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019) 48
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025) 49
Refined Fuels 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019) 51
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025) 52
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 52
Latest Updates 52
Structural Trends 52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019) 54
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025) 54
Industry Risk Reward Index 55
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 55
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 55
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 58
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 60
Australia - Risk/Reward Index 62
Upstream Index - Overview 62
Upstream Index - Rewards 62
Upstream Index - Risks 62
Downstream Index - Overview 63
Market Overview 64
Australia Energy Market Overview 64
Regulatory Regime 64
Fiscal Regime 66
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 66
Licensing Rounds 66
Table: 2016 Release Areas 66
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 68
Table: Oil Refineries In Australia 68
LNG Terminals 68
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia 68
Competitive Landscape 70
Table: Australian Refining Capacity By Player 71
Company Profile 72
Santos 72
Table: Major Current Assets 73
Table: Santos Limited - Key Financial Data 73
Woodside Petroleum 74
Table: Major Current Assets 75
Table: Woodside Petroleum - Key Financial Data 75
Regional Overview 76
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook 76
Glossary 83
Table: Glossary Of Terms 83
Methodology 85
Industry Forecast Methodology 85
Source 87
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 87
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 89
Table: Weighting 90

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Australia 2014-2020)
Table: Recoverable Shale Oil And Gas
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Australia - Key Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Australia 2020-2025)
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators
Table: 2016 Release Areas
Table: Oil Refineries In Australia
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia
Table: Australian Refining Capacity By Player
Table: Major Current Assets
Table: Santos Limited - Key Financial Data
Table: Major Current Assets
Table: Woodside Petroleum - Key Financial Data
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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