Australia - Mobile Market - Overview, Statistics, Forecasts, and Analyses

Publisher Name :
Date: 08-Nov-2017
No. of pages: 110

Overview

This report provides data and analysis on a range of mobile technologies in Australia, as well as an assessment of network developments. It assesses the prospects for operators as they extend their LTE deployments beyond the major urban areas and deeper into rural areas, and invest in prototype 5G technologies in preparation for deployments anticipated from 2020. The report contains a range of key statistics on network data throughput, operator strategies and emerging technologies. In addition, the report assesses operator revenue and ARPU and details the development of the prepaid and contract subscriber bases for each MNO. The handset and smartphone markets are covered, as well as MNOs’ financial and operational data.

Executive Summary

Australia is a world leader in the 4G and 5G mobile market ecosystem

The Australian mobile market is dominated by the three major mobile network operators (MNO) Telstra, Optus, and Vodafone (VHA). There is also a significant number of Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) in Australia.

Increasingly in an era leaning further to mobile data than voice, mobile networks must offer sufficient performance for customers. The three LTE networks operated by Optus, Telstra and Vodafone have developed rapidly during the past three years as these players strive to provide an infrastructure capable of meeting customer demand for mobile broadband services.

These MNOs have invested in spectrum and network upgrades to bolster network capacity, while the geographic extension of LTE will see wider take-up from consumers in coming years. Given that about 90% of all mobile device sales are now smartphones, the growth in mobile data traffic is increasing rapidly.

5G represents the next evolution in mobile technologies. It is expected to support an immense increase in data rates, at 1Gb/s and higher, reduce latency and enable networks to connect a vast number of devices.

5G is only one element of a larger ecosystem that includes broadband access, Internet of Things (IoT), M2M, cloud computing, data centres and data analytics. Only when 5G is deployed within that broader ecosystem will operators be able to reap the benefits of this new technology.

Mobile broadband usage in particular has taken off during the last few years, a trend which will continue in the wake of the marketing of a wide range of affordable and more capable devices, and of LTE population coverage which by 2017 had reached about 98%.

In common with most mature markets, in Australia there are significantly more subscribers to mobile services than there are people. Australia’s mobile market is now highly mature and developed with slow annual subscriber growth rates of below 3% since 2013. Mobile penetration is now well over 100%.

For all operators, price competition combined with a focus on managing their mobile businesses as they adapt to new technologies being brought into play, have led to considerable pressure in recent years.

Very slow growth is predicted over the next five years to 2022 with penetration rates predicted to rise only slightly above the projected population increase.

All three Australian MNOs are now investing billions of dollars in their networks annually, with a view to securing new customers and retaining existing ones. Increasingly, consumers are looking to mobile communications for their broadband needs.

Smartphones, and to a lesser extent tablets, have become central as a means of accessing the internet, particularly among the younger demographic. In addition, these devices are beginning to dominate overall e-commerce, accounting for about a third of e-commerce transactions. This proportion will increase further into 2018 in line with the wider availability of devices with larger screens, more mobile-friendly websites and easier payment systems. These devices account for a growing proportion of mobile data accessed and of business and commerce related transactions.

Key developments:


  • MNVO Amaysim announced the launch of its NBN products.

  • Telstra started to roll out new next-gen optical tech in its underlying transmission network.

  • Telstra and Ericsson are actively working to build momentum in the LTE-Broadcast global ecosystem.

  • Telstra has claimed a world first with the launch of a live LTE network capable of supporting 1Gbps peak download speeds.

  • Optus took a step towards 5G switching on 4.5G network services across a suburb in NSW.

  • 4.5G and 5G are the new frontiers linked to wearable device communications and other IoT and M2M activities.


Companies mentioned in this report:

SingTel, Vodafone, 3, VHA, Optus, Telstra, MeU Mobile; Amaysim, Woolworths, Crazy Johns, JB HiFi, Hutchison Australia, 3, NBN, Virgin Mobile, Aldi Mobile; Lebara, Kogan Mobile, Red Bull Mobile, Macquarie Telecom, Pivotel, Apple, Nokia, BlackBerry, HTC, Google, Ericsson, Sony, Samsung.

Australia - Mobile Market - Overview, Statistics, Forecasts, and Analyses

Table of Contents

1. Mobile network operators and MNVOs
1.1 Mobile Operator Ecosystem Structure
1.2 Market Analyses and Emerging Trends
1.2.1 The rise of mobile data Services
1.2.2 Moving towards 5G and IoT
1.2.3 Cutting the fixed-line cord
1.3 Industry overview
1.3.1 International Comparisons
1.3.2 Mobile coverage black spots
1.3.3 Roaming
1.3.4 Mobile technology boosts productivity
1.4 Mobile Network Operators (MNOs)
1.4.1 Telstra
1.4.2 Optus
1.4.3 Vodafone Hutchison Australia (VHA)
1.5 Network technologies
1.5.1 HSPA-based services
1.5.2 Long-term Evolution (LTE)
1.5.3 2G services
1.5.4 NB-IoT
1.6 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
1.6.1 Market Definition
1.6.2 Market overview
1.6.3 Background developments in the MVNO market
1.6.4 Amaysim
1.6.5 Kogan Mobile
1.6.6 Aldi Mobile
1.6.7 Ovo Mobile
1.6.8 Lebara Mobile
1.6.9 Virgin Mobile
1.6.10 Woolworths Mobile
1.6.11 MeU Mobile
1.7 Closed MNVOs
1.7.1 Red Bull Mobile
1.8 Mobile resellers
1.8.1 Background information
1.8.2 Resellers on the Telstra network
1.8.3 Resellers on the Optus network
1.8.4 Resellers on the Vodafone network

2. Mobile subscribers, revenues and forecasts
2.1 Mobile subscriber statistics
2.1.1 Total Mobile subscribers and Market Forecast
2.1.2 Operator market shares and growth
2.1.3 Prepaid and postpaid subscribers by operator
2.1.4 2G, 3G and 4G subscribers
2.1.5 Wholesale market
2.1.6 International Comparisons
2.2 Mobile Services Revenues, Forecast and Market Analysis
2.3 Operator revenue statistics overview
2.3.1 Revenue by major operator
2.3.2 Revenue Market share and Trends by Operator
2.3.3 Revenue Trends by Service
2.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
2.4.1 Overview of ARPU
2.4.2 Blended ARPU
2.4.3 Prepaid and postpaid ARPU

3. Mobile broadband – statistics, LTE and 5G
3.1 Market analysis
3.1.1 Mobile broadband to drive structural change
3.1.2 Mobile broadband slowly substitutes fixed services
3.2 Mobile broadband market statistics
3.2.1 Mobile broadband subscribers
3.2.2 Fixed wireless broadband market
3.3 High-speed mobile network Technology
3.3.1 High-speed packet access (HSPA) Background information
3.3.2 LTE Background information
3.3.3 Long-term Evolution (LTE)
3.3.4 VoLTE
3.3.5 Moving from 4G to 5G
3.3.6 5G developments
3.4 Mobile Blackspot Program
3.5 Overview of 4G frequency usage
3.6 State projects

4. Smartphones, Tablets and handset market
4.1 Market overview
4.2 Wearable technology
4.3 Smartphone data usage Statistics
4.4 Smartphone, tablet and handset statistics
4.4.1 Smartphone and other Device Ownership
4.4.2 Smartphone and tablet Shipments
4.4.3 Handset supplier market shares
4.4.4 Tablet sales falling
4.5 Market surveys
4.5.1 Smartphone Usage - 2017
4.5.2 Wearables and Smartphone Survey
4.5.3 Australian teenager smartphone usage
4.5.4 Mobile handset Usage Trends
4.5.5 Smartphones lead to higher data spend
4.5.6 Smartphone users are action buyers
4.5.7 Android remains the favoured operating system
4.5.8 Enterprise mobility market increasing in value

5. Mobile spectrum overview
5.1 Overview
5.2 Spectrum regulations
5.2.1 Background information
5.2.2 Australian Radiofrequency Plan
5.3 ACMA five-year outlook – 2016 - 2020
5.3.1 Spectrum demand overview
5.3.2 Towards 2020 – Future spectrum requirements
5.3.3 Regulatory issues
5.3.4 Fifteen-year spectrum licence pathway
5.3.5 Improving spectrum trading arrangements
5.4 Spectrum-based services
5.4.1 Mobile services
5.4.2 WiMAX wireless services
5.4.3 Ultra-Wideband services (UWB)
5.4.4 New broadband wireless technology
5.5 Spectrum ownership and licences
5.5.1 Mobile spectrum
5.5.2 Apparatus licences
5.5.3 Unlicensed spectrum (IMS)

6. Mobile spectrum auctions
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Digital dividend auction
6.2.1 700MHz and 2.5GHz spectrum
6.2.2 Competition limits
6.2.3 Spectrum Auction 2017
6.2.4 Price of spectrum
6.2.5 Combinatorial Clock Auction (CCA) of 700MHz and 2.5GHz band
6.2.6 CCA auction in 2013 with spectrum to use in 2015
6.2.7 Auction Results - 2013
6.3 500MHz frequency
6.4 800MHz and 1.8GHz frequencies
6.4.1 15-year spectrum licences up for renewal in 2013
6.4.2 Auction of 1998
6.4.3 Additional auction – September 1998
6.4.4 Additional 800MHz auction – May 1999
6.4.5 Final 800MHz auction – 2001
6.4.6 1800MHz auction of 2000
6.4.7 1800MHz auction - 2016
6.5 1880-1920MHz (1.9GHz) frequency
6.5.1 1900-1920MHz band auctions – 2007
6.6 2010-2025MHz frequencies
6.7 2.3GHz band
6.8 Unused 2GHz spectrum
6.9 3.4GHz frequencies
6.9.1 Trials
6.9.2 Auction announcement
6.9.3 Spectrum sales - 2002, 2004, 2005
6.9.4 ACMA reduces spectrum prices
6.10 3G Auctions
6.10.1 Overview
6.10.2 Auction process – 2001
6.10.3 Auction price
6.10.4 Auction results – 2001

List of Tables

Table 1 – Mobile-only phone users – 2010 - 2016
Table 2 – GSMA mobile connectivity markers (top five countries) – 2016
Table 3 – Telstra LTE data cards in service – 2010 - 2016
Table 4 – Telstra Group - Top Line Annual Financial Results - 2005 - 2017
Table 5 – Telstra Group - Revenue ($billion) by Product Segment and Annual Change – 2015 - 2017
Table 6 – Telstra mobile subscribers – 2008 - 2017
Table 7 – Telstra mobile subscribers – 2009 - 2017
Table 8 – Overview of Optus overall operating revenue summary – 2000 - 2017
Table 9 – Optus key financial indicators – 2009 - 2017
Table 10 –Optus – Financial Result - Division – 2014 - 2017
Table 11 – Optus mobile subscribers, annual change – 2005 - 2017
Table 12 – Optus mobile pre/postpaid and mobile broadband customers (thousands) – 2008 - 2017
Table 13 –Optus – Key Operating Statistics - 2015 - 2017
Table 14 – Vodafone Australia revenue – 2009 - 2017
Table 15 – Vodafone Australia (Group) – subscribers (millions) by type – 2009 – 2017
Table 16 – VHA MVNO customers – 2014 – 2016
Table 17 – Retail Mobile subscribers share by MNO and MVNO – 2013 – 2015
Table 18 – Retail mobile subscriber market share by MNO and MVNO - 2015 - 2016
Table 19 – Amaysim Mobile subscribers and subscriber churn – 2015 - 2017
Table 20 – Mobile subscribers, penetration and annual change (with forecast) – 2000 - 2022
Table 21 – Mobile subscribers (millions) by MNO (with forecast) – 2009 - 2019
Table 22 – Annual change of mobile subscribers by MNO – 2010 - 2019
Table 23 – Market share of mobile subscribers by MNO (with forecast) – 2010 - 2019
Table 24 – Historic - Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier – 1995; 1997; 2000 - 2009
Table 25 – Historic - Retail mobile subscriber market share by MNO and MNVO – 2015 - 2016
Table 26 – MNO prepaid subscribers (millions) by operator – 2009 - 2017
Table 27 – MNO market share of prepaid subscribers – 2009 - 2017
Table 28 – MNO postpaid subscribers (millions) by operator – 2009 - 2017
Table 29 – MNO market share of postpaid subscribers – 2009 - 2017
Table 30 – MNO total market of prepaid and postpaid subscribers (millions) – 2009 - 2017
Table 31 – MNO total market proportion of prepaid and postpaid subscribers – 2009 - 2017
Table 32 – Prepaid as % of Total Subscribers by Operator - 2009 - 2017
Table 33 – Postpaid as % of Total Subscribers by Operator - 2009 - 2017
Table 34 – Historic - Share of postpaid subscribers by MNO and MNVO – 2014 – 2015
Table 35 – Historic Share of prepaid subscribers by MNO and MNVO – 2014 – 2015
Table 36 – Historic - 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2003 - 2011
Table 37 – Historic - Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2007 - 2011
Table 38 – Historic - Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
Table 39 – Historic - 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
Table 40 – Historic - Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2011
Table 41 – Telstra wholesale subscribers – 2009 - 2016
Table 42 – Vodafone wholesale (MVNO) subscribers – 2014 - 2016
Table 43 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change (with forecast) – 2005 - 2019
Table 44 – Historic - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 1993 - 2009
Table 45 – Telstra mobile services revenue – 2009 - 2017
Table 46 – Telstra mobile prepaid and postpaid revenue – 2008 – 2017
Table 47 – Vodafone Australia revenue – 2009 - 2017
Table 48 – Optus mobile revenue – 2013 – 2017
Table 49 – Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator – 2005 - 2017
Table 50 – Historic - Mobile market revenue per major operator – 1993 - 2004
Table 51 – Historic - Annual change of mobile market revenue per major operator – 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2004
Table 52 – Mobile market share in revenue per major operator – 2000 - 2017
Table 53 – Telstra mobile and broadband revenue – 2009 - 2017
Table 54 – Blended monthly ARPU by MNO – 2000 - 2017
Table 55 – Telstra mobile ARPU - prepaid, postpaid, mobile broadband – 2004 – 2017
Table 56 – Optus postpaid ARPU per month – 2004 - 2017
Table 57 – VHA Monthly ARPU – 2015- 2016
Table 58 – Wireless broadband subscribers by access type – 2009 - 2017
Table 59 – Mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2017
Table 60 – Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes – 2007 - 2017
Table 61 –Fixed wireless broadband subscribers – 2010 - 2017
Table 62 – Average LTE speed by MNO – 2012 - 2016
Table 63 - 1800MHz auction results – February 2016
Table 64 – Proportion of people using smartphones for internet access – 2012 - 2017
Table 65 – Internet connections via mobile handsets – 2011 - 2017
Table 66 – Australian handset shipments (historic) – 2004 - 2009
Table 67 – Australian handset shipments – 2010 - 2016
Table 68 – Historic - Australian handset brand market share – major suppliers – 2008 - 2014
Table 69 – Estimated tablet users – 2010 - 2012; 2015 - 2016
Table 70 – Tablet market share by manufacturer – 2014 - 2015
Table 71 – Apps info and payment plan data – 2009 - 2014
Table 72 – Monthly phone spend on services – 2010 - 2014
Table 73 – Types of use on smartphones – 2012 - 2014
Table 74 – Smartphone and tablet use of services – 2014
Table 75 – Typical selected usage pattern of a smartphone user – 2011 - 2014
Table 76 – Estimated Australian platform market share – 2008 - 2016
Table 77 – The 500MHz spectrum licences – 1997
Table 78 – Spectrum charges for spectrum bandwidth licenses

List of Charts

Chart 1 – Overall Optus overall operating revenue and annual change – 2001 - 2017
Chart 2 – Optus mobile subscribers and annual change – 2001 - 2017
Chart 3 – Optus mobile pre/postpaid customers – 2008 – 2017
Chart 4 – Mobile subscribers and penetration (with forecast) – 2007 - 2022
Chart 5 – Market share of mobile subscribers by MNO (with forecast) – 2010 - 2019
Chart 6 – Market share of mobile subscribers by MNO (with forecast) – 2010 - 2019
Chart 7 – MNO market share of prepaid subscribers – 2009 - 2017
Chart 8 – MNO market share of postpaid subscribers – 2009 - 2017
Chart 9 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change (with forecast) – 2010 - 2019
Chart 10 – Overview of mobile revenue share per major operator – 2000 - 2017
Chart 11 – PC, desktop and Mobile Device Ownership - 2016

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1 – The initial analogue operators – brief historic background
Exhibit 2 – MVNO models
Exhibit 3 – MVNO opportunities
Exhibit 4 – Examples of key MVNO customer segments
Exhibit 5 – Mobile carriers and selected resellers and MVNEs
Exhibit 6 – The Power of 5G
Exhibit 7 – 700MHz reallocation – 2011 - 2014
Exhibit 8 – Digital dividend spectrum
Exhibit 9 – Proposed 2.5GHz reallocation – 2011 - 2016
Exhibit 10 – Expiring spectrum allocation timetable – 2015 - 2028
Exhibit 11 – Allocations for wireless access services (WAS)
Exhibit 12 – Mobile spectrum by operator in capital city and regional area
Exhibit 13 – GSM services by operator
Exhibit 14 – WCDMA services by operator
Exhibit 15 – Ownership of selected frequencies for 2.3GHz and 3.4GHz services
Exhibit 16 – An overview of the digital dividend auction timeline – 2010 - 2015
Exhibit 17 – 700MHz and 2.5GHz auction results – 2013
Exhibit 18 – Companies initially showing interest in the 800/1800MHz auctions
Exhibit 19 – Auction results
Exhibit 20 –1.8GHz spectrum auction results - 2000
Exhibit 21 –1.8GHz spectrum auction results - 2016
Exhibit 22 – The 1900-1920MHzGHz spectrum auction results
Exhibit 23 – The 2.3GHz spectrum auction results – 2011
Exhibit 24 – 3.4GHz initial bidders – August 2000
Exhibit 25 – Final 3.4GHz – October 2000
Exhibit 26 – 3G auction results per bidder – 2001

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