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BMI View: We expect to see steady, if particularly uninspiring, annual growth to be the main trend in 2016,
with road freight pencilled in to lead the way in y-o-y growth terms (3.1%). Acting as something of a drag
on growth across the freight modes will be China's weakening economy, while the unwinding investment
boom in the mining sector will be further compounded by weakness in the housing market as of 2017. This
being the case, along with our 2.2% forecast for GDP in 2017 (down from 2016's 2.4% forecast), we expect
the freight modes that cater more for the domestic consumer market (road and air) will post smaller gains
next year, as high levels of household debt continue to limit demand for certain goods.
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? We forecast that Australia's exports and imports (real growth) will grow by 2.9% in 2016, but there will
be a mixed bag when taken individually, with the exports set to increase by 6.2% y-o-y, while imports
will see a slight contraction of 0.5%.
? BMI maintains it assertion that the Australian economy will face increasing downside pressure for its
high levels of household debt, expensive residential real estate valuations, and high level of exposure to
the Chinese economy. For this reason, we are well below consensus on Australian real GDP growth,
forecasting an expansion of just 2.4%, versus consensus expectations of 2.9%.
? The Australian freight industry would benefit from a crystallisation of plans to create a national freight
and supply chain strategy put forward by the Australian Logistics Council (ALC). The move would
enhance productivity in the sector over the long term and the managing director of ALC, Michael
Kilgariff, urged the government to implement the strategy in its opening 30 days in power, reported
Logistics and Materials Handling in August 2016.