Australia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 61

BMI View: We expect to see steady, if particularly uninspiring, annual growth to be the main trend in 2016,

with road freight pencilled in to lead the way in y-o-y growth terms (3.1%). Acting as something of a drag

on growth across the freight modes will be China's weakening economy, while the unwinding investment

boom in the mining sector will be further compounded by weakness in the housing market as of 2017. This

being the case, along with our 2.2% forecast for GDP in 2017 (down from 2016's 2.4% forecast), we expect

the freight modes that cater more for the domestic consumer market (road and air) will post smaller gains

next year, as high levels of household debt continue to limit demand for certain goods.

Latest Updates And Forecasts

? We forecast that Australia's exports and imports (real growth) will grow by 2.9% in 2016, but there will

be a mixed bag when taken individually, with the exports set to increase by 6.2% y-o-y, while imports

will see a slight contraction of 0.5%.

? BMI maintains it assertion that the Australian economy will face increasing downside pressure for its

high levels of household debt, expensive residential real estate valuations, and high level of exposure to

the Chinese economy. For this reason, we are well below consensus on Australian real GDP growth,

forecasting an expansion of just 2.4%, versus consensus expectations of 2.9%.

? The Australian freight industry would benefit from a crystallisation of plans to create a national freight

and supply chain strategy put forward by the Australian Logistics Council (ALC). The move would

enhance productivity in the sector over the long term and the managing director of ALC, Michael

Kilgariff, urged the government to implement the strategy in its opening 30 days in power, reported

Logistics and Materials Handling in August 2016.

Australia Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2013-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Freight Transport 7
Industry Forecast 9
Trade Forecast 9
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2013-2020) 13
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2013-2020) 13
Table: Main Import Partners, 2007-2014 (USDmn) 14
Table: Main Export Partners, 2007-2014 (USDmn) 15
Road Freight Forecast 16
Table: Road Freight (Australia 2013-2020) 19
Rail Freight Forecast 20
Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2013-2020) 25
Air Freight Forecast 26
Table: Air Freight (Australia 2013-2020) 30
Shipping Forecast 31
Ocean Shipping 32
Table: Major Ports Data (Australia 2013-2020) 33
Market Overview 35
Company Profile 37
Aurizon (formerly QR National) 37
Pacific National 41
Qantas Freight 45
Toll Group 49
Demographic Forecast 53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025) 54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025) 54
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025) 56
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sector-Specific Methodology 59
Sources 61

List of Tables

Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2013-2020)
Table: Trade Overview (Australia 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Australia 2013-2020)
Table: Main Import Partners, 2007-2014 (USDmn)
Table: Main Export Partners, 2007-2014 (USDmn)
Table: Road Freight (Australia 2013-2020)
Table: Rail Freight (Australia 2013-2020)
Table: Air Freight (Australia 2013-2020)
Table: Major Ports Data (Australia 2013-2020)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Australia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Australia 1990-2025)
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