Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 104

BMI View: Highly prospective acreage, a strengthening competitive landscape and supportive pricing

dynamics will help insulate the Argentine shale sector from aggressive clawbacks in industry spending. A

shift toward a more investor-friendly mandate under the Macri administration will open up significant

opportunities in Argentina's upstream sector. As such, the core Neuquén shale province will benefit from

increased development over the course of the next decade, although more peripheral shale formations

could take longer to develop.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Our neutral outlook for prices over H216 continues to play out and we maintain our USD46.5/bbl average

forecast for Brent this year. We expect significant support around USD42.0/bbl to hold and for a rebound

from these levels over the coming weeks.

- Economic activity growth in Argentina will be driven by surging investment over the coming years. After

years of underinvestment due to macroeconomic instability, interventionist government policy and a lack

of access to capital markets, investment will flock to key sectors including agriculture, energy and real

estate following the economy's rapid liberalisation under President Mauricio Macri.

- Although real GDP will contract 0.6% y-o-y in 2016 as a result of elevated inflation and rising

unemployment, increasing investment over the coming quarters will lead to a strong rebound in 2017.

Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: 2014 Amended Hydrocarbons Law 12
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Argentina - Key Upstream Projects 16
Upstream Production - Oil 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Oil Production (Argentina 2014-2019) 23
Table: Oil Production (Argentina 2020-2025) 23
Upstream Production - Gas 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Gas Production (Argentina 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Production (Argentina 2020-2025) 28
Refining 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Argentina 2020-2025) 31
Refined Fuels Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Argentina 2020-2025) 35
Gas Consumption 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Argentina 2020-2025) 40
Trade - Oil 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Argentina 2014-2020) 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Argentina 2020-2025) 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Argentina 2014-2019) 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Argentina 2020-2025) 45
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Argentina 2014-2019) 49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Argentina 2020-2025) 50
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 51
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 51
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 51
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings 52
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 53
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 54
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit 56
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 58
Argentina - Risk/Reward Index 59
Upstream Index 59
Downstream Index 60
Market Overview 61
Argentina Energy Market Overview 61
Overview/State Role 61
Licensing And Regulation 62
Government Policy 63
Licensing Rounds 64
International Energy Relations 64
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 68
Oil Refineries 68
Table: Refineries In Argentina 68
Service Stations 70
Oil Terminals/Ports 70
Oil Pipelines 70
LNG Terminals 70
Gas Storage 71
Gas Pipelines 71
Competitive Landscape 74
Competitive Landscape Summary 74
Table: Key Downstream Players 74
Company Profile 75
YPF 75
Table: Table - Key Assets In Argentina 76
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 76
Chevron 78
Table: Table - Major Assets In Argentina 79
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 80
ExxonMobil 81
Table: Table - Major Assets In Argentina 82
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 82
Regional Overview 84
Latin America Overview 84
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 95
Glossary 97
Table: Glossary Of Terms 97
Methodology 99
Industry Forecast Methodology 99
Source 101
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 101
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 103
Table: Weighting 104

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2020)
Table: 2014 Amended Hydrocarbons Law
Table: Argentina - Key Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Argentina 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Argentina 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Argentina 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Argentina 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Argentina 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Argentina 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Argentina 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Argentina 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Argentina 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Argentina 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Argentina 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Argentina 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Argentina 2020-2025)
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Refineries In Argentina
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Table - Key Assets In Argentina
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
Table: Table - Major Assets In Argentina
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
Table: Table - Major Assets In Argentina
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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