Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 88

BMI View: Algeria's short-term oil production will be supported by increased focus on conventional assets,

but in the absence of deeper, market-oriented reforms foreign participation will remain low, limiting the oil

output over the long-term. Our outlook for the gas sector is also bearish, mostly due to slow progress in gas

pricing reforms, which will curb upstream investment and lead to production declines toward the second

half of our forecast period. More generally, the Algerian market oil and gas market will continue to suffer

from unattractive fiscal and regulatory regime, ongoing security concerns, and the weakened commodity

price environment.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

? Algeria's oil and gas reserves will continue to decline during 2016-2020. Oil reserves are forecast to

contract by 33.7% to 8.0bn bbl in 2025, while gas reserves will see a reduction of 19.5%, falling to

3.6tcm over the same period. The country will shift the exploration focus away from shale and other

frontier plays towards improving recovery from producing assets.

? Sonetrach announced that Algeria's oil production is entering a new phase of growth. In 2016, the

company expects to increase its gas production to 69mn tonnes, up from 67mn tonnes a year earlier. We

hold our forecast that Algeria's oil production will increase marginally in 2016 and 2017, before declining

at an average annual rate of 1.2% during 2018-2025.

? Algeria will continue to lag its regional peers in terms of gas pricing reforms. Reforms will be

insufficient to draw significant new foreign investment into the upstream gas sector over the coming

years, contributing to secular decline in domestic output.

? We hold our view that Algeria's refining capacity will remain stable at 650,800b/d until 2025. While the

country's NOC is planning significant upgrades to the country's refining sector, we have kept the new

capacity out of our forecast due to lack of details and progress in the new projects.

Algeria Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria 11
Table: Algeria Fourth International Bid Round Block Awards 13
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects 16
Upstream Production - Oil 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2014-2019) 22
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2020-2025) 22
Upstream Production - Gas 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2014-2019) 26
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2020-2025) 26
Refining 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2020-2025) 29
Refined Fuels Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2020-2025) 35
Gas Consumption 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG) 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Algeria LNG Contracts 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025) 43
Trade - Oil 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Crude Oil 44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2020) 46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025) 46
Refined Fuels 46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019) 47
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025) 48
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 49
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 49
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 49
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 52
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 52
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 55
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 55
Algeria - Risk/Reward Index 58
Upstream Index 58
Downstream Index 58
Market Overview 60
Algeria Energy Market Overview 60
Regulatory Overview 60
Licensing Regime 60
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Licensing Terms 61
Fiscal Regime 61
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Fiscal Terms 61
Licensing Rounds 62
Table: Algeria 2014 Licensing Round 62
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 63
LNG Terminals 63
Table: Algeria LNG Export Terminals 63
Oil Refineries 64
Table: Algeria Oil Refineries 64
Gas Pipelines 64
Table: Algeria Main Gas Export Pipelines 64
Competitive Landscape 65
Competitive Landscape Summary 65
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector 66
Table: Key Upstream Players 66
Table: Key Downstream Players 67
Company Profile 68
Enterprise Nationale Sonatrach 68
Latest Updates 68
Regional Overview 71
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 71
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 80
Glossary 81
Table: Glossary Of Terms 81
Methodology 83
Industry Forecast Methodology 83
Source 85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 85
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 87
Table: Weighting 88

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Algeria 2014-2020)
Table: Total Mean Undiscovered Conventional Resources In Basins Covering Algeria
Table: Algeria Fourth International Bid Round Block Awards
Table: Algeria Major Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Algeria 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Algeria 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Algeria 2020-2025)
Table: Algeria LNG Contracts
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Algeria 2020-2025)
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Licensing Terms
Table: Algeria Model PSC Main Fiscal Terms
Table: Algeria 2014 Licensing Round
Table: Algeria LNG Export Terminals
Table: Algeria Oil Refineries
Table: Algeria Main Gas Export Pipelines
Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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